Yesterday’s column was my annual end-of-year round-up of the best and worst developments of the concluding year.
Today I’ll be forward looking and give you my hopes and fears for the new year, which is a newer tradition that began in 2017 (and continued in 2018 and 2019).
With my glass-half-full outlook, we’ll start with the things I hope will happen.
Supreme Court strikes down civil asset forfeiture – It is nauseating that bureaucrats can steal property from citizens who have never been convicted of a crime. Or even charged with a crime. Fortunately, this disgusting practice already has attracted attention from Clarence Thomas and other sound-thinking Justices on the Supreme Court. Hopefully, this will produce a decision that ends this example of Venezuela-style government thuggery.
Good free-trade agreements for the United Kingdom – This is a two-pronged hope.
First, I want a great agreement between the U.S. and the U.K., based on the principle of mutual recognition. Second, I want the best-possible agreement between the U.K. and the E.U., which will be a challenge since the political elite in Brussels has a spiteful desire to “punish” the British people for supporting Brexit.
Maduro’s ouster in Venezuela – I already wished for this development in 2018 and 2019, so this is my “Groundhog Day” addition to the list. But if I keep wishing for it, sooner or later it will happen and I’ll look prescient. But I actually don’t care about whether my predictions are correct, I just want an end to the horrible suffering for the people of Venezuela.
Here are the things I fear will happen in 2020.
A bubble bursts – I hope I’m wrong (and that may be the case since I’ve been fretting about it for a long time), but I fear that financial markets are being goosed by an easy-money policy from the Federal Reserve. Bubbles feel good when they’re expanding, but last decade should have taught us that they can be very painful when they pop.
A loss of economic liberty in Chile and/or Hong Kong – As shown by Economic Freedom of the World, there are not that many success stories in the world.
But we can celebrate what’s happened in Hong Kong since WWII and what’s happened in Chile since the late 1970s. Economic liberty has dramatically boosted prosperity. Unfortunately, Hong Kong’s liberty is now being threatened from without and Chile’s liberty is now being threatened from within.
Repeal of the Illinois flat tax – The best approach for a state is to have no income tax, and a state flat tax is the second-best approach. Illinois is in that second category thanks to a long-standing provision of the state’s constitution. Needless to say, this irks the big spenders who control the Illinois government and they are asking voters this upcoming November to vote on whether to bust the flat tax and open the floodgates for an ever-growing fiscal burden. By the way, it’s quite likely that I’ll be including the Massachusetts flat tax on this list next year.
I’ll also add a special category for something that would be both good and bad.
Trump gets reelected – Because Trump is producing better tax policy and better regulatory policy, and because of my hopes for judges who believe in the Constitution’s protections of economic liberty, it would be good if he won a second term.
Trump gets reelected – Because Trump is producing worse spending policy and worse trade policy, and because of my concerns never-ending Keynesian monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it would be bad if he won a second term.
Happy New Year, everyone.
International Liberty 
[…] Ends Civil Asset Forfeiture – I mentioned this as a hope for 2022, 2021, and 2020, so maybe the fourth time is the charm. My fingers are crossed that the odious […]
[…] Supreme Court Ends Civil Asset Forfeiture – I mentioned this as a hope for 2022, 2021, and 2020, so maybe the fourth time is the charm. My fingers are crossed that the odious practice of […]
[…] an annual tradition (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, etc) to list a handful of things that I hope might happen in the upcoming year, as […]
[…] If you want to see hope and fears for previous years, here are my thoughts for 2020, 2019, 2018, and […]
Perhaps it’s unfortunate, but I’d like to suggest that Trump should be compared to his likely opposition, not an imaginary perfect candidate. You are trying to help people make decisions between Trump and his opponent, so you should focus on the realistic list of potential candidates.
The strange thing about Trump is that he is not a Libertarian, not at all pure from an ideological standpoint, but he has been more effective in changing government for the better than anyone since Reagan. Who would have taken on the freedom-sapping evils of Big Regulation more effectively than Trump? Who would take on the incandescent lamp killers, the dishwashers that don’t wash, etc, etc?
Certainly there is one thing that’s painfully clear in listening to his Democratic opponents: They are keen on increasing spending by an order of magnitude. Trump has increased spending but certainly not by nearly that much. The only thing we can say that’s good about the Democrats is that none of them are nearly as talented as President Trump. So when they say they are going to do something, odds are they will fall flat on their faces, just as our last several Presidents have.
Still, I have to give President Trump huge wins on tax cuts, regulation and the economy in general. I like that he is willing to take on a lot of things other Presidents have shunned. And I have to admit he’s a great entertainer who’s often hilarious. Hard for me not to like him on a personal level.
[My URL, everypov.news, looks at news from every point of view — left to right. I hope you’ll give it a look.]
I’m getting very irritated that so many columnists out there feel that once they’ve said something positive about Trump, they are obligated to say something negative to placate the loony lefties. That’s what your last paragraph was – pablum to the “children”.
Trump win not all good? As opposed to Trump losing and America dying under a Stalinist Democrat regime of open borders, Virginia expanded nationwide, and retaliatory political persecution that the Left has PROMISED will happen? Maybe you can’t call Trump winning fully good, but Trump losing is the end of the country. You can’t isolate things like that over one issue.
YOU WROTE: “Because Trump is producing worse spending policy and worse trade policy, and because of my concerns never-ending Keynesian monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, it would be bad if he won a second term.”
As opposed to Democrat/Marxist [Fill In the Blank] who will give you and us NONE of the policies you / we think are good (regulations, taxing, judges, etc.) and ALL of the polices, including “never-ending Keynesian monetary policy.”
That is simply not enough, in my opinion, to justify lumping his reelection into what is good and bad. Getting major aspects of our house in order is fine with me. And we must. And not a single president I have ever studied–and I have studied them all–provide all we want because they are human.
Otherwise, great column.
Happy New Year.