Ukraine is in the news and that’s not a good thing.
I’m not a foreign policy expert, to be sure, but it can’t be a positive sign when nations with nuclear weapons start squabbling with each other. And that’s what’s happening now that Russia is supposedly occupying Crimea and perhaps other parts of Ukraine and Western powers are complaining.
I’m going to add my two cents to this issue, but I’m going to approach it from an unusual angle.
Look at this linguistic map of Ukraine. The red parts of the country show where Russian is the primary language and most people presumably are ethnically Russian.
Now look at these maps (from here, here, here, and here) showing various election results in the country.
Like I said, I’m not overly literate on foreign policy, but isn’t it obvious that the Ukrainians and the Russians have fundamentally different preferences?
No wonder there’s conflict.
But is there a solution? And one that doesn’t involve Putin annexing – either de facto or de jure – the southern and eastern portions of the nation?
It seems there are two options.
1. Secession – The first possibility is to let the two parts of Ukraine have an amicable (or at least non-violent) divorce. That’s what happened to the former Soviet Union. It’s what happened with Czechoslovakia became Slovakia and the Czech Republic. And it’s what happened (albeit with lots of violence) when Yugoslavia broke up.
For what it’s worth, I’ve already suggested that Belgium should split into two nations because of linguistic and cultural differences. So why not the same in Ukraine?
Heck, Walter Williams has argued that the same thing should happen in America, with the pro-liberty parts of the nation seceding from the statist regions.
2. Decentralization – The second possibility is for Ukraine to copy the Swiss model of radical decentralization. In Switzerland, even though there are French cantons, German cantons, and an Italian canton, the various regions of the country don’t squabble with each other because the central government is relatively powerless.
This approach obviously is more attractive than secession for folks who think that existing national borders should be sacrosanct.
And since this post is motivated by the turmoil in Ukraine, it’s worth pointing out that this also seems to be a logical way of defusing tensions across regions.
I confess I have a policy reason for supporting weaker national governments. Simply stated, there’s very strong evidence that decentralization means more tax competition, and when governments are forced to compete for jobs and investment, the economy is less likely to be burdened with high tax rates and excessive redistribution.
Indeed, we also have very strong evidence that the western world became prosperous precisely because the proliferation of small nations and principalities restrained the natural tendencies of governments to oppress and restrain economic activity.
And since Ukraine (notwithstanding it’s flat tax) has a very statist economic system – ranking only 126th in the Economic Freedom of the World index, maybe a bit of internal competition would trigger some much-needed liberalization.
P.S. If you’re intrigued by the secession idea promoted by Walter Williams, you’ll definitely enjoy this bit of humor about a national divorce in the United States.
P.P.S. If you think decentralization and federalism is a better option than secession, the good news is that more and more Americans have unfavorable views of Washington.
P.P.P.S. The tiny nation of Liechtenstein is comprised of seven villages and they have an explicit right to secede if they become unhappy with the central government in Vaduz. And even the statist political crowd in the United Kingdom is considering a bit of federalism.
[…] P.P.S. More federalism and decentralization would help ease divisions in nations such as Belgium and Ukraine. […]
[…] On the issue of ethnic division in the country, Ukraine also would benefit from Swiss-style […]
[…] P.P.S. While today’s topic is de facto secession of local governments, my support for decentralization makes me sympathetic to regional secession. See, for example, Scotland, Liechtenstein, California, Italy, Belgium, and Ukraine. […]
[…] Now, perhaps, you’ll understand why I even suggested federalism as a solution to the mess in Ukraine. […]
Daniel, how well giving Sudetenland to Hitler work for anyone, and why do you think submitting to Putin’s invaders will work better?
[…] approach to domestic policy. In other words, a version of the advice I offered on Ukraine,Scotland, and Belgium basically applies in this part of the world as well. Call it one nation with […]
[…] why I think secession or radical decentralization is/was the right approach in Ukraine, Belgium, and […]
[…] the approach that perhaps would have averted the catastrophe we now see in Ukraine, so why not try it in places where the stakes are simply jobs […]
[…] the approach that perhaps would have averted the catastrophe we now see in Ukraine, so why not try it in places where the stakes are simply jobs […]
[…] the approach that perhaps would have averted the catastrophe we now see in Ukraine, so why not try it in places where the stakes are simply jobs […]
[…] helps to explain why federalism is a very practical solution to the ethnic division in […]
[…] helps to explain why federalism is a very practical solution to the ethnic division in […]
“The Geopolitics of World War III”
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/09/26/the-geopolitics-of-world-war-iii.html
the Russian view on events in Ukraine:
“The world moving closer to war”
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/04/27/the-world-moving-closer-to-war.html
[…] explained a few weeks ago that decentralization was one way of defusing the […]
[…] By the way, it goes without saying that this doesn’t imply the United States should be intervening. You can read my thoughts here. […]
a dangerous situation…
“C’mon baby, light my (Crimean) fire”
By Pepe Escobar
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-01-070314.html
for more information on the situation on the ground in Ukraine…
“Putin’s army salutes a Nulandized Kiev”
By Peter Lee
http://atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/CEN-02-040314.html
[…] I should hasten to add, incidentally, that this is not to suggest I want Obama to do anything about the Ukrainian conflict (other than perhaps encourage decentralized power). […]
genocide… the systematic elimination of a population… justice… would be the surrender of north America to it’s native peoples… but that will not happen…
we deal with the realities of our day… just as Putin is dealing with his… he is a nationalist… a man who loves mother Russia,,, and will ultimately do anything to act in what he believes to be her best interests… make no mistake… the Russians do not bluff,,,
Few remarks.
1. As it was said already, the present ethnic situation is a direct result of Soviet ethnic cleansing and Russification policies. It would be a villainy to adhere to the principle “might makes right” and reward those policies.
2. The present internal boundary is not something historic and stable. In fact, it is rapidly moving East and South — compare electoral maps of 1991 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_presidential_elections_1991.png), 1994 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ukraine_presidential_elections_1994,_second_round.png), 2002 (http://uk.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D0%A4%D0%B0%D0%B9%D0%BB:%D0%92%D0%B8%D0%B1%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B82002.gif).
3. Also, see a linguistic map from 2001 census: http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UkraineNativeLanguagesCensus2001detailed.PNG
4. As for Crimea, let’s remember the native population of Crimea is Crimean Tatars. They were rounded up to the last soul and deported by Russians to Central Asia in 1944. A half of the nation perished during the genocide. If somebody has a say about Crimea, it ought to be Tatars.
Ukraine is in a very tough spot. Sandwiched between authoritarian Russia with annexation aspirations and the declining European continent which wants to absorb Ukraine into its moribund growth customs union.
Yes, the best choice for Ukraine would be independence and federalism/partition.
But don’t hold your breath. The Ukrainians themselves are very statist people. A population cannot shed several decades of statism, notwithstanding the falls of iron curtains and colored revolutions. The psyche of these societies remains deeply steeped in coercive collectivism. In these ex-communist societies, there is a typical temporary backlash against the specific type of coercive collectivism that brought about the wretched decline, only to soon embrace a slightly different version of coercive collectivism. For the overwhelming number of societies, the road to coercive collectivism is a one way street. That is why these countries, eg. Russia, simply flip-flop between different versions of coercive socialism. Red flags, black flags, blue flags, green flags, hammers, sickles, swastikas, uncle Joseph, uncle Vladimir,…the slogans and details change but the essence remains the same: Citizens remain slaves to supreme rulers, commissariats, commeettees, or a pitchfork holding majority. I.e. You, your life, your vitality belong to society. The only quarrel is the details of how the individual will be used to serve the whole, and who is going to manage it. So these societies simply flip flop between different ideas about how to forcibly absorb the individual and his vitality into centrally planned collective plans. And it never works. Only enough time passes to forget past failed attempts and then the cycle repeats. Yes, there is overall progress towards more freedom on a worldwide basis– after all, Darwinian natural selection of successful cultural traits cannot be stopped — but the progress is very slow.
America had once been spared this almost universal fate. But copying the rest of the world is the one way road America is slowly moving towards. But the pace will inevitably accelerate, as the incline of the slippery slope has now surpassed the friction coefficient. Past a certain point, collectivism takes a life of its own and things fold quickly. But true rebirth remains elusive after the one way transformation.
the Ukraine is dead broke…. no money… flat busted… Egypt without the Saudi sugar daddy… American interests have whizzed away over 5 billion dollars in the last decade in hopes of influencing political events in Ukraine… for what? the eastern part of the country sports soviet era industry which is non-competitive in the world market place… and the west is sucking-up to a bankrupt Europe? pretty funny stuff… as long as the American taxpayers are not expected to pick up the tab…………….
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Ukraine is in the news and that’s not a good thing.
[…] https://danieljmitchell.wordpress.com/2014/03/01/ukraine-ethnic-division-decentralization-and-secessi… […]
Dilemmatic
“Obama Warns Russia on Ukraine, Then 30 Minutes Later Declares ‘Happy Hour’ For Democrats”
one picture is worth a thousand words…
http://www.truthrevolt.org/news/obama-warns-russia-ukraine-then-30-minutes-later-declares-happy-hour-democrats
There are a couple of problems with partition.
The first is that Ukraine proper would lose sea access.
The second is that, as i understand, the Russian-majority areas are a product of Stalin’s ethnic cleansing. Partition would send a message to posterity that ethnic cleansing works.
That’s not to say that the Swiss solution is ideal. In my opinion, every country should strive to be more like Switzerland, constitutionally speaking. However, there are no Swiss cantons in which Russia has a strategic interest. The same cannot be said of Ukraine. Any realistic solution should take these interests into account.
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Ukraine, Ethnic Division, Decentralization, and Secession
I’m going to miss Tom Clancy. His most recent book predicted all of this.
I would favor the Swiss approach, but secession will probably be the result for two reasons: the Ukrainian politicians on each side will want to retain what central power they can; and the Russians will want one entity that they can manipulate, not a bunch of independent canton-like states.
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Ukraine, Ethnic Division, Decentralization, and Secession