Two months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.
Last month, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.
Today, with just three months to go, I’m guessing the election will be even closer. In my latest electoral map, I’m moving Colorado from the lean-Obama category to the lean-Romney category. This leaves Obama with a lead of just 275-263 in the electoral college.
Now let me preemptively deal with some complaints and criticisms.
Some people ask why I’m so pro-Obama. After all, the unemployment rate is above 8 percent and I’ve told audiences that Obama won’t win unless the joblessness rate drops under that level. Surely I must have my thumb on the scale for Obama.
Other people ask why I’m so pro-Romney. After all, Real Clear Politics gives Obama 332 electoral votes and Intrade gives Obama a 58 percent chance of winning (up from 56 percent last month). Surely I must have my thumb on the scale for Romney.
Folks, I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m just giving you my best guess as to the map we’ll see early in the morning of November 7.
Now let’s move to the really interesting political news. I noticed on Twitter that people seemed to think it was somehow important that Jenna Jameson endorsed Romney. I’m not sure that her profession and her endorsement are all that helpful, but judge for yourself.
Porn star Jenna Jameson chose a familiar stage to make her endorsement for the 2012 presidential election Thursday night. At a San Francisco strip club, the former adult actress and stage performer said she was ready for a Romney presidency. “I’m very looking forward to a Republican being back in office,” Jameson said while sipping champagne in a VIP room at Gold Club in the city’s South of Market neighborhood. “When you’re rich, you want a Republican in office.”
For what it’s worth, Obama has porn star supporters as well. Ron Jeremy says nice things about Romney, but he’s supporting the incumbent.
In an interview with the Boston Herald, Jeremy said he’s voting for President Barack Obama in November. But he told the paper he still gives Romney “credit.” “I think he means well, I think he’s a good man,” Jeremy told the Herald. “I think the fact that he’s such an amazing father proves a lot. I give him a lot of credit. He’s raised some good sons. When a man is a really, really good father, that’s very important… It’s a good race.”
The presumptive Republican nominee wins the tiebreaker, though, with support from Michael Lucas, one of the world’s leading gay porn stars.
Lucas, who grew up in the former Soviet Union and immigrated to the United States in 1997 after working in Europe as a male prostitute, founded Lucas Entertainment in 1998, which flourished into a mega-enterprise that produces some of the most lavish gay porn films in the industry. …Lucas, by the way, considers himself a conservative, votes Republican and donates generously to several libertarian and right-wing causes. …”I would support Romney of course,” the director of “Men in Stockings” and “Hunt & Plunge” told Yahoo News. “There is nobody else to support.”
For some reason, I don’t think we’ll see this endorsement featured in any of Romney’s commercials, but you never know.
P.S. Never forget that economists are lousy forecasters.
P.P.S. Like all good libertarians, I don’t want the government trying to outlaw porn when it involves consenting adults. But I’m mystified that it makes so much money. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s dull. But maybe this is just my inner social conservative speaking.
P.P.P.S. I’ll be in Colorado later this month for a visit to the High Lonesome Ranch and to speak at the Steamboat Institute’s Freedom Conference. I reserve the right to change my prediction for the Centennial State after meeting with folks on that trip.
[…] you’re looking for real porn, this isn’t the right website. I’ve commented (here, here, and here) on porn stars and politics, but you won’t find any “visuals.” […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] actually meant the Sarah Jackson. If it was a more uncommon name (such as Jenna Jameson, the famous Republican-supporting porn star), then you could safely assume (though not legally prove) that he intended to make a boorish joke. […]
[…] Back in 2012, I pointed out that Obama and Romney both were endorsed by different porn […]
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[…] in August, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for […]
[…] month, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for […]
[…] month, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for […]
@Sean L. Well said, I completely agree!
Rvdixie:
Maybe Mr. Mitchell “doesn’t have a dog in this fight” because, like me, he thinks both candidates will increase the deficit, increase the debt, make the tax code more complex, continue to promote illegal wars, support the TSA, continue with the failed drug war, increase regulatory burden, etc. etc.
I, for one, am no longer voting for the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for Gary Johnson for president.
[…] I suspect putting Ryan on the ticket will shift Wisconsin into the GOP column. Based on my last prediction, that would be enough to defeat Obama. But I’ll have to contemplate whether the pick hurts […]
[…] I suspect putting Ryan on the ticket will shift Wisconsin into the GOP column. Based on my last prediction, that would be enough to defeat Obama. But I’ll have to contemplate whether the pick hurts […]
I think this is a very good map but I think the tide is turning. President Obama will be lucky to hold onto 200 electoral votes after OH, WI, MN, PA, and several other key states start to slip away.
[…] Comments « A New Prediction for the Electoral Map (and the All-Important Contest for Porn Star Endorsement… […]
Your comments are non-sensical! How can you not have a dog in this fight. Are you saying that one candidate is not superior to the other? Regardless of which you chose, if you care enough for your country you have to be “for one or the other”. You may think Obama is the answer. If so have the guts to say so.
Based on current polls the map looks about right But I’ll bet Wisconsin, Iowa, and New Hampshire end up going to Romney. There are a few other states where Obama leads but is under 50 percent. If he can’t hit a 50 percent approval rating by now, the undecideds will likely move to Romney. Romney wins.
I’ve also been amazed that the porn industry and romance book biz can continue to crank out essentially the same stuff with little variation for years and years and make good money at it. I mean really, it’s not like you don’t know how they’re going to end! LOL
With everything that has happened in WI with the recall elections and overwhelming support for Governor Walker, I believe WI will be in Romney’s column.