Three months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.
Back in July, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.
Last month, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for Obama.
Romney partisans will be disappointed to learn, though, that their candidate has fallen a bit further behind in my new prediction for the 2012 election.
The big change is that I moved Florida to the “leaning Obama” category and those 29 electoral votes more than offset the impact of shifting Iowa and Wisconsin to the “leaning Romney” column.
I’m shifting Wisconsin because of Paul Ryan. As for Iowa, I’m going by nothing but gut instinct.