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Posts Tagged ‘Electoral Map’

On the big issue of who wins the presidential election, I’ve been as constant as the north star.

But for state-by-state estimates, I’ve been flipping back and forth like a corrupt politician (pardon my redundancy) trying to decide between two interest groups.

This month, I’m reversing everything from last month. I give Florida back to Romney, largely on the basis of his performance in the debate. Moreover, I was thinking of giving Virginia and Colorado back to Obama, thus changing what I did in July and August, but decided to leave those states in the GOP camp because of what happened on the stage in Denver.

But I decided I was wrong about Iowa and Wisconsin. The polls from those two states are simply too unfriendly and I’m guessing the Obama turnout operation will be stronger.

However, I’ve decided to shift New Hampshire to Romney, again because of the debate, so the net effect is a very close election. But Obama still prevails.

For what it’s worth, the folks at Real Clear Politics show Obama winning 303 electoral votes. The difference in our projections is that they give Nevada, Colorado, Virginia, and New Hampshire to Obama.

Are they right? Well, their estimates are based on polling data, so you have to ask yourself if the polls are accurate and/or if the polls today reflect what will happen on November 6.

Intrade says Obama is a 2-1 favorite, so the people putting money on the table certainly think the election isn’t that close. Then again, Intrade had Obama as a 3-1 favorite before the debate, so that number also can move a lot.

P.S. I realize Romney supporters probably aren’t very happy with my prediction. To compensate for being the bearer of bad news, you can see some viciously funny anti-Obama jokes here, here, and here.

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Three months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.

Back in July, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.

Last month, I predicted things were moving even farther in the GOP direction. By moving Colorado to the Republican side, I guessed the outcome would be 275-263 for Obama.

Romney partisans will be disappointed to learn, though, that their candidate has fallen a bit further behind in my new prediction for the 2012 election.

The big change is that I moved Florida to the “leaning Obama” category and those 29 electoral votes more than offset the impact of shifting Iowa and Wisconsin to the “leaning Romney” column.

Why these changes? Well, I suspect that the demagoguery on Social Security and Medicare will hurt in Florida, even though the GOP platform on entitlement reform is that people over age 55 are exempt.

I’m shifting Wisconsin because of Paul Ryan. As for Iowa, I’m going by nothing but gut instinct.

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Two months ago, I predicted that Obama would win reelection with 297 electoral votes, 27 more than needed.

Last month, I shifted Virginia to Romney’s column and predicted Obama would still win, but with 284 votes.

Today, with just three months to go, I’m guessing the election will be even closer. In my latest electoral map, I’m moving Colorado from the lean-Obama category to the lean-Romney category. This leaves Obama with a lead of just 275-263 in the electoral college.

Now let me preemptively deal with some complaints and criticisms.

Some people ask why I’m so pro-Obama. After all, the unemployment rate is above 8 percent and I’ve told audiences that Obama won’t win unless the joblessness rate drops under that level. Surely I must have my thumb on the scale for Obama.

Other people ask why I’m so pro-Romney. After all, Real Clear Politics gives Obama 332 electoral votes and Intrade gives Obama a 58 percent chance of winning (up from 56 percent last month). Surely I must have my thumb on the scale for Romney.

Folks, I don’t have a dog in this fight. I’m just giving you my best guess as to the map we’ll see early in the morning of November 7.

Now let’s move to the really interesting political news. I noticed on Twitter that people seemed to think it was somehow important that Jenna Jameson endorsed Romney. I’m not sure that her profession and her endorsement are all that helpful, but judge for yourself.

Porn star Jenna Jameson chose a familiar stage to make her endorsement for the 2012 presidential election Thursday night. At a San Francisco strip club, the former adult actress and stage performer said she was ready for a Romney presidency. “I’m very looking forward to a Republican being back in office,” Jameson said while sipping champagne in a VIP room at Gold Club in the city’s South of Market neighborhood. “When you’re rich, you want a Republican in office.”

For what it’s worth, Obama has porn star supporters as well. Ron Jeremy says nice things about Romney, but he’s supporting the incumbent.

In an interview with the Boston Herald, Jeremy said he’s voting for President Barack Obama in November. But he told the paper he still gives Romney “credit.” “I think he means well, I think he’s a good man,” Jeremy told the Herald. “I think the fact that he’s such an amazing father proves a lot. I give him a lot of credit. He’s raised some good sons. When a man is a really, really good father, that’s very important… It’s a good race.”

The presumptive Republican nominee wins the tiebreaker, though, with support from Michael Lucas, one of the world’s leading gay porn stars.

Lucas, who grew up in the former Soviet Union and immigrated to the United States in 1997 after working in Europe as a male prostitute, founded Lucas Entertainment in 1998, which flourished into a mega-enterprise that produces some of the most lavish gay porn films in the industry. …Lucas, by the way, considers himself a conservative, votes Republican and donates generously to several libertarian and right-wing causes. …”I would support Romney of course,” the director of “Men in Stockings” and “Hunt & Plunge” told Yahoo News. “There is nobody else to support.”

For some reason, I don’t think we’ll see this endorsement featured in any of Romney’s commercials, but you never know.

P.S. Never forget that economists are lousy forecasters.

P.P.S. Like all good libertarians, I don’t want the government trying to outlaw porn when it involves consenting adults. But I’m mystified that it makes so much money. It’s the same thing over and over again, and it’s dull. But maybe this is just my inner social conservative speaking.

P.P.P.S. I’ll be in Colorado later this month for a visit to the High Lonesome Ranch and to speak at the Steamboat Institute’s Freedom Conference. I reserve the right to change my prediction for the Centennial State after meeting with folks on that trip.

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Here’s the second of my electoral map predictions for the November elections. In my first estimate last month, I showed Obama winning with 297 electoral votes.

This new map still shows him in the lead, but I’ve switched my home state of Virginia to the GOP column. Northern Virginia is filled with government bureaucrats and corrupt lobbyists, both pro-Obama groups, but I now think they’ll be out-voted by what my ex-wife referred to as the people from “real Virginia.”

Interestingly, Intrade.com now has Obama up to a 56 percent favorite, which is higher than he was on June 6. So either I’m wrong in thinking the race is moving in Romney’s direction or Intrade.com is wrong for thinking it is moving in Obama’s direction.

You can decide who to believe. Just keep in mind that my 2010 election predictions were very accurate and Intrade.com was wrong on the Obamacare Supreme Court decision.

P.S. My ex generated some controversy with her comment about “real Virginia,” but I’ve always been mystified by the kerfuffle. Just look at this map and see how the counties in Northern Virginia are among the wealthiest in America thanks to all the loot being redistributed from the rest of the country to the metro-DC area. Those looters and moochers have very little in common with the people in the rest of the Commonwealth.

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Since I’m a policy wonk and not a political prognosticator, I’m not sure why people keep asking me what will happen in the November elections. But since I got lucky with my 2010 predictions, I may as well throw in my two cents.

The election is now exactly five months away, so here’s my first cut at what will happen.

At this point, I am predicting an Obama victory, albeit by a much narrower margin than in 2008.

Given the weak economy and unpopularity of Obamacare, one might think Romney should be the favorite. However, the establishment media is completely in the tank for Obama and Romney is not exactly the strongest candidate, and I think those factors will tip the scales in November.

That being said, Obama has dropped from being a 60 percent-plus favorite on Intrade to just a 52.3 percent favorite in recent weeks, so GOP partisans have reasons to be hopeful.

Since all I care about is policy, I confess I’m not sure whether to be happy about my prediction. It all boils down to whether the “Richard Nixon Disinfectant Rule” applies to Romney. As of right now, we don’t know the answer. Here’s what I told ABC News earlier this week.

“The negative spin is that he’s said all these things to basically get past a conservative-leaning Republican Party electorate and that he’s really the Massachusetts moderate that some of his opponents tried to make him out to be,” said Dan Mitchell, a Cato economist… The flip side, Mitchell said, is that if Romney does stick to his promises to conservatives, they’ll be pleased when he gives support to Paul Ryan’s budget, takes steps to lower the spending-to-GDP ratio significantly, and offers states flexibility on spending Medicaid money.

We’ll have plenty of time between today and November 6 to analyze the presidential election, so let’s leave the national stage and take a look at what happened yesterday in Wisconsin and California.

We’ll start with California, because there were two very important – but largely overlooked – votes in San Diego and San Jose about curtailing lavish pensions for bureaucrats. The results were shocking, particularly since California is a left-wing state. Here’s part of the AP report.

Voters in two major California cities overwhelmingly approved cuts to retirement benefits for city workers in what supporters said was a mandate that may lead to similar ballot initiatives in other states and cities that are struggling with mounting pension obligations. Supporters had a simple message to voters in San Diego and San Jose: Pensions for city workers are unaffordable and more generous than many private companies offer… In San Diego, 66 percent voted in favor of Proposition B, while 34 percent were opposed. Nearly 97 percent of precincts were tallied by early Wednesday. The landslide was even bigger in San Jose, the nation’s 10th-largest city. With all precincts counted, 70 percent were in favor of Measure B and 30 percent were opposed.

Since I’ve written repeatedly about excessive compensation for government employees, these results are encouraging. Perhaps the gravy train has finally been derailed

Yesterday’s big election, though, was in Wisconsin. Republicans took control of the state in 2010 and enacted laws to restrain the power of union bureaucracies, which led to a counterattack by the left. First, there was a recall effort against Republicans in the State Senate and that failed. Then there was a recall against one of the GOP judges on the state’s Supreme Court, and that failed.

The climactic battle yesterday was to recall Governor Scott Walker. So how did that turn out? Let’s enjoy these excerpts from the Washington Post.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker won a vote to keep his job on Tuesday, surviving a recall effort that turned the Republican into a conservative icon…That made Walker the first governor in U.S. history to survive a recall election; two others had failed. …the night provided a huge boost for Walker — as well as Republicans in Washington and state capitals who have embraced the same energetic, austere brand of fiscal conservatism as a solution for recession and debt. In a state known for a strong progressive tradition, Walker defended his policies against the full force of the labor movement and the modern left. And he won, again.

By the way, the final result in the Badger State was 53 percent-46 percent and I predicted 54 percent-46 percent, so I somewhat atoned for my awful guess on the Iowa caucuses.

P.S. This cartoon accurately shows what was at stake in Wisconsin.

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