Most economic policy debates are predictable. Folks on the left urge higher taxes and bigger government while folks on the right advocate lower taxes and smaller government (thanks to “public choice” incentives, many supposedly pro-market politicians don’t follow through on those principles once they’re in office, but that’s a separate issue).
The normal dividing line between right and left disappears, however, when looking at whether the welfare state should be replaced by a “universal basic income” that would provide money to every legal resident of a nation.
There are some compelling arguments in favor of such an idea. Some leftists like the notion of income security for everybody. Some on the right like the fact that there would be no need for massive bureaucracies to oversee the dozens of income redistribution programs that currently exist. And since everyone automatically would get a check, regardless of income, lower-income people seeking a better life no longer would face very high implicit tax rates as they replaced handouts with income.
But there are plenty of libertarians and small-government conservatives who are skeptical. I’m in this group because of my concern that the net result would be bigger government and I don’t trust that the rest of the welfare state would be abolished. Moreover, I worry that universal handouts would erode the work ethic and exacerbate the dependency problem.
And I have an ally of the other side of the ideological spectrum.
Former Vice President Joe Biden…will push back against “Universal Basic Income,”… UBI is a check to every American adult, but Biden thinks that it’s the job that is important, not just the income. In a blog post…timed to the launch of the Joe Biden Institute at the University of Delaware, Biden will quote his father telling him how a job is “about your dignity. It’s about your self-respect. It’s about your place in your community.”
I often don’t agree with Biden, but he’s right on this issue.
Having a job, earning a paycheck, and being self-sufficient are valuable forms of societal or cultural capital.
By contrast, a nation that trades the work ethic for universal handouts is taking a very risky gamble.
Let’s look at what’s been written on this topic.
In an article for the Week, Damon Linker explores the importance of work and the downside of dependency.
…a UBI would not address (and would actually intensify) the worst consequences of joblessness, which are not economic but rather psychological or spiritual. …a person who falls out of the workforce permanently will be prone to depression and other forms of psychological and spiritual degradation. When we say that an employee “earns a living,” it’s not merely a synonym for “receives a regular lump sum of money.” The element of deserving (“earns”) is crucial. …a job can be and often is a significant (even the primary) source of a person’s sense of self-worth. …A job gives a person purpose, a reason to get up in the morning, to engage with the world and interact with fellow citizens in a common endeavor, however modest. And at the end of the week or the month, there’s the satisfaction of having earned, through one’s own efforts, the income that will enable oneself and one’s family to continue to survive and hopefully even thrive.
Dan Nidess, in a column for the Wall Street Journal, opines about the downsides of universal handouts.
At the heart of a functioning democratic society is a social contract built on the independence and equality of individuals. Casually accepting the mass unemployment of a large part of the country and viewing those people as burdens would undermine this social contract, as millions of Americans become dependent on the government and the taxpaying elite. It would also create a structural division of society that would destroy any pretense of equality. …UBI would also weaken American democracy. How long before the well-educated, technocratic elites come to believe the unemployed underclass should no longer have the right to vote? Will the “useless class” react with gratitude for the handout and admiration for the increasingly divergent culture and values of the “productive class”? If Donald Trump’s election, and the elites’ reactions, are any indication, the opposite is likelier. …In the same Harvard commencement speech in which Mr. Zuckerberg called for a basic income, he also spent significant time talking about the need for purpose. But purpose can’t be manufactured, nor can it be given out alongside a government subsidy. It comes from having deep-seated responsibility—to yourself, your family and society as a whole.
An article in the American Interest echoes this point.
…work, for most people, isn’t just a means of making money—it is a source of dignity and meaning and a central part of the social compact. Simply opting for accelerated creative destruction while deliberately warehousing the part of the population that cannot participate might work as a theoretical exercise, but it does not mesh with the wants and desires and aspirations of human beings. Communities subsisting on UBIs will not be happy or healthy; the spectacle of free public redistribution without any work requirement will breed resentment and distrust.
Writing for National Review, Oren Cass discusses some negative implications of a basic income.
…even if it could work, it should be rejected on principle. A UBI would redefine the relationship between individuals, families, communities, and the state by giving government the role of provider. It would make work optional and render self-reliance moot. An underclass dependent on government handouts would no longer be one of society’s greatest challenges but instead would be recast as one of its proudest achievements. Universal basic income is a logical successor to the worst public policies and social movements of the past 50 years. These have taken hold not just through massive government spending but through fundamental cultural changes that have absolved people of responsibility for themselves and one another, supported destructive conduct while discouraging work, and thereby eroded the foundational institutions of family and community that give shape to society. …Those who work to provide for themselves and their families know they are playing a critical and worthwhile role, which imbues the work with meaning no matter how unfulfilling the particular task may be. As the term “breadwinner” suggests, the abstractions of a market economy do not obscure the way essentials are earned. A UBI would undermine all this: Work by definition would become optional, and consumption would become an entitlement disconnected from production. Stripped of its essential role as the way to earn a living, work would instead be an activity one engaged in by choice, for enjoyment, or to afford nicer things. …Work gives not only meaning but also structure and stability to life. It provides both socialization and a source of social capital. It helps establish for the next generation virtues such as responsibility, perseverance, and industriousness. …there is simply no substitute for stepping onto the first rung. A UBI might provide the same income as such a job, but it can offer none of the experience, skills, or socialization.
Tyler Cowen expresses reservations in his Bloomberg column.
I used to think that it might be a good idea for the federal government to guarantee everyone a universal basic income, to combat income inequality, slow wage growth, advancing automation and fragmented welfare programs. Now I’m more skeptical. …I see merit in tying welfare to work as a symbolic commitment to certain American ideals. It’s as if we are putting up a big sign saying, “America is about coming here to work and get ahead!” Over time, that changes the mix of immigrants the U.S. attracts and shapes the culture for the better. I wonder whether this cultural and symbolic commitment to work might do greater humanitarian good than a transfer policy that is on the surface more generous. …It’s fair to ask whether a universal income guarantee would be affordable, but my doubts run deeper than that. If two able-bodied people live next door to each other, and one works and the other chooses to live off universal basic income checks, albeit at a lower standard of living, I wonder if this disparity can last. One neighbor feels like she is paying for the other, and indeed she is.
In a piece for the City Journal, Aaron Renn also comments on the impact of a basic income on national character. He starts by observing that guaranteed incomes haven’t produced good outcomes for Indian tribes.
…consider the poor results from annual per-capita payments of casino revenues to American Indian tribes (not discussed in the book). Some tribes enjoy a very high “basic income”—sometimes as high as $100,000 per year— in the form of these payments. But as the Economist reports, “as payment grows more Native Americans have stopped working and fallen into a drug and alcohol abuse lifestyle that has carried them back into poverty.”
And he fears the results would be equally bad for the overall population.
Another major problem with the basic-income thesis is that its intrinsic vision of society is morally problematic, even perverse: individuals are entitled to a share of social prosperity but have no obligation to contribute anything to it. In the authors’ vision, it is perfectly acceptable for able-bodied young men to collect a perpetual income while living in mom’s basement or a small apartment and doing nothing but play video games and watch Internet porn.
Jared Dillian also looks at the issue of idleness in a column for Bloomberg.
I do not like the idea of a universal basic income. Its advocates fundamentally misunderstand human nature. What they do not realize about human beings is that for the vast majority of them, a subsistence level of income is enough — and those advocates are blind to the corrosive effects that widespread idleness would have on society. If you give people money for doing nothing, they will probably do nothing. …A huge controlled experiment on basic income has already been run — in Saudi Arabia, where most of the population enjoys the dividends of the country’s oil wealth. Saudi Arabia has found that idleness leads to more political extremism, not less. We have a smaller version of that controlled experiment here in the U.S. — for example, the able-bodied workers who have obtained Social Security Disability Insurance payments and are willing to stay at home for a piddling amount of money. …the overarching principle is that people need work that is worthwhile, for practical and psychological reasons. If we hand out cash to anyone who can fog a mirror, I figure we are about two generations away from revolution.
By the way, it’s not just American Indians and Saudi Arabians that are getting bad results with universal handouts.
Finland has been conducting an experiment and the early results don’t look promising.
The bottom line is that our current welfare system is a dysfunctional mess. It’s bad for taxpayers and recipients.
Replacing it with a basic income probably would make the system simpler, but at a potentially very high cost in terms of cultural capital.
That’s why I view federalism as a much better approach. Get Washington out of the redistribution racket and allow states to compete and innovate as they find ways to help the less fortunate without trapping them in dependency.
[…] Joe Biden at one point understood the downsides of universal payments. Given his supportfor per-child […]
[…] Joe Biden at one point understood the downsides of universal payments. Given his support for per-child handouts, […]
[…] Back in 2017, Joe Biden said some sensible things about work and dependency. Given what he’s now pushing, he obviously was not being sincere […]
[…] Ironically, Joe Biden seemed to understand this in the not-too-distant past. […]
[…] Ironically, Joe Biden seemed to understand this in the not-too-distant past. […]
[…] Joe Biden expressed skepticism about basic income back in 2017, but that did not stop him from proposing per-child handouts after […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] It wasn’t too long ago that Biden seemed to understandthe importance of societal […]
[…] It wasn’t too long ago that Biden seemed to understand the importance of societal […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] is a very unfortunate development. Just four years ago, Joe Biden rejected no-strings-handouts such as “basic […]
[…] is a very unfortunate development. Just four years ago, Joe Biden rejected no-strings-handouts such as “basic […]
[…] Interestingly, Joe Biden expressed skepticism about the idea back in 2017, but he obviously has had a change of heart, given his current support […]
[…] Because he said some sensible things about “basic income” back in 2017, I had hoped Biden would be better on this issue. I should […]
[…] Because he said some sensible things about “basic income” back in 2017, I had hoped Biden would be better on this issue. I […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] Biden used to oppose a government-guaranteed income, correctly realizing it would undermine the work […]
[…] P.S. As indicated by the above excerpt, Scott Winship’s article concludes with a warning that universal per-child handouts could be the camel’s nose under the tent for a “basic income,” which is the crazy notion that government should give everyone money. That’s an additional reason to reject the idea, as even Joe Biden once realized. […]
[…] P.S. As indicated by the above excerpt, Scott Winship’s article concludes with a warning that universal per-child handouts could be the camel’s nose under the tent for a “basic income,” which is the crazy notion that government should give everyone money. That’s an additional reason to reject the idea, as even Joe Biden once realized. […]
[…] Joe Biden understands that this would erode societal […]
[…] idea was mostly embraced by folks on the left (though not Joe Biden), but there’s now a related idea on the right to provide “wage subsidies” so that […]
[…] of government automatically will expand because of demographic change. And I also worry about eroding societal capital, with more and more people thinking it’s okay to live off the government. And let’s not […]
[…] of government automatically will expand because of demographic change. And I also worry about eroding societal capital, with more and more people thinking it’s okay to live off the government. And let’s not […]
[…] Former Vice President Joe Biden actually agrees with me about one of the downsides of basic […]
State is still too big. Part if not all of charity should come locally. Food banks are much better run than food stamps from Big Brother Washington. Bureaucracy is a cold blooded, controlling, merciless system. They have no business helping the truly needy. They don’t see the people as people but numbers. (And perhaps votes to be harvested in October!)
[…] Former Vice President Joe Biden actually agrees with me about one of the downsides of basic […]
the video provides a glimpse into the future of AI and robotics… the technology will redefine the economic and social structure of nations world wide… big changes ahead…
DAY2 – Thinking machines: Summit on artificial intelligence and robotics
future investment initiative:
John:
I agree with your concerns. It’s one thing to propose a new system and quite another to have it implemented as proposed.
Within the pro-UBI group there are two factions. The first, like myself, want the UBI as a replacement for what we are currently doing, without spending any more. The second, that scares the C**P out of a lot of possible supporters, is the income inequality crowd that wants redistribution of wealth, beyond poverty level support.
I don’t think the second group have any possibility of success, because most of our legislators are either well in the 1% (Clintons, Pelosi, Warren, Bernie, Schumer) or want to get there soon. It also won’t work in the long run, if you remove all incentive to succeed.
I agree that pure implementation is also a problem, because of “Public Choice” issues, but if enough momentum is achieved, to eliminate all “tax expenditures” and all welfare agencies, it just might happen.
Thanks for your comment.
Ned,
I agree with everything you say. One additional subtle point on your clothing example: when technology and productivity drive down the cost of various goods, society ends up buying a much larger quantity, and that larger production quantity also offsets some portion of the jobs lost due to productivity. “My income is higher and clothing costs less, so I’ll own three sets of clothing instead of one.” Productivity increases incomes and lowers product costs, and that’s prosperity.
However, a faster speed of creative destruction does not (for me) justify a radical government response until there is more evidence that it is warranted. It is so very difficult to curtail or eliminate any government program that I need more evidence to start a new one.
By the way, I am not totally against UBI. I’m definitely against it as a response right now to technology and productivity. I’m not so much against it as a way to simplify many programs and reduce harmful anti-work incentives a bit. I’m slightly doubtful, but haven’t made up my mind. I fear politicians would pocket the UBI and not truly eliminate all the other programs.
What is different this time is the speed of transition. New jobs will open up, but they will require new skills.
In the 1800’s in the textile industry, hand weavers were put out of business, in fact it is estimated that 98% of those jobs were lost. Workers threw shoes (sabots –>sabotage) into the equipment. The Luddite movement was founded to stop automation. However, this was at a time when many people only had one set of clothes. The machines drove prices down and quality up so much that new jobs opened up selling and distributing the fabric that found multiple new uses.
Either of two things or a combination will happen in the industries that automate: prices will be driven down, in which case consumers will spend their savings in new way; or, companies will be more profitable and will need to invest in new directions.
New jobs will be found, but filling those jobs will require higher skill levels and adaptability to accelerating change.
V-MAX,
I never said all we have to do is believe in historical precedent. I was not even offering an “approach” or solution. I was merely trying to interject a positive note that robotics and AI are not guaranteed to produce the doom and gloom that you mention.
You can pooh-pooh 500 years of historical precedent as simplistic, and not want to trust it, but what’s your alternative? Some government solution to clamp down on technological advancements? Some new type of government assistance program? Is that really going to make your doom and gloom scenario all better?
People have been afraid of advancements in technology and productivity for centuries. Yet, on an overall basis, it’s worked out quite well so far. Yes, this time may be different. But it also may not be different. People often think “this time, it’s different,” but it rarely is.
Personally, I’d prefer to see more of the doom and gloom scenario actually realized before we embark on any radical government response. I guess I’m just a bit cynical about the wisdom and efficiency of the federal government.
V-Max
Agree that a UBI will help in a “gig” economy world, but we also have to break the link with company funded healthcare and pensions. Life long jobs are the exception rather than the rule.
When companies pay salaries only, the UBI replaces the tax advantages lost, but it does it in a more effective way. Better to have $6,000 cash than a $24,000 health plan from your boss at 25% tax exclusion, because that “Cadillac” plan probably doesn’t fit your needs.
the world has changed a great deal… it’s now economic success is now based on global competition… next year the Chinese economy will overtake ours… I don’t think anyone is sure exactly what that means from a geopolitical perspective… but global change is assured… are there going to be plentiful jobs for Americans throughout the next decade? perhaps… but no one knows…. the idea that all we have to do is believe in historical precedent is a simplistic approach to a complex problem…. we have a labor participation rate of 62.7 %… our kids rank with Slovenia in terms of academic achievement… our manufacturing base and much of our cutting edge technology has has been transferred abroad… we have not been conducting our affairs for long term success… but focused on short term profit…. ultimately… the visionaries will rule the world… not those who choose to live in the past….
V-MAX,
It may be true that “this time is different” with robotics and AI. However, the fear that new technology will destroy jobs is centuries old. So far, the fears have been overblown or wrong. That is, new and different jobs have always been created.
Think of it this way. Roughly, it used to be that 90% of American jobs were on farms, now it’s 3%. It used to be that 40% of American jobs were in factories, now it’s 10%. This is because technology (and other factors) has made farm and factory workers much more productive. If it was indeed true that technology always destroyed overall jobs, today most of us would be unemployed!
Why didn’t this happen? One example: we stop using horse-drawn plows and start using tractors. Yes, this reduces jobs for plow-makers and horse-related jobs, but it creates jobs for designing, making, and servicing tractors.
Because the tractor is more productive, society becomes wealthier. We produce the same amount of food as before, but now with fewer people. That frees up people to go work tractor-related jobs. In addition, greater wealth allows people to buy other products or services they previously could not afford, and that creates new jobs in those other areas. The turmoil can be painful for some, but we all end up better off in the long run.
Again, it’s possible that “this time is different.” However, the track record of technology and productivity making us wealthier and NOT destroying net jobs is VERY long and VERY good. I’d vote for optimism.
technology is a wondrous thing… a few years ago… who could have imagined that a bizarre combination of A.I. and robotics could have replaced workers in “the world’s oldest profession”… brothels in Europe are being staffed with sex robots… and increasing numbers of European men are expressing a preference for the robots over a living breathing woman… it’s dammed creepy… but more jobs are being lost to new technologies every day.. it is hard to say where it will end… truck drivers being replaced with automatic driving systems… cargo ships fully automated… robotic manufacturing… it’s a brave new world… and ultimately it will lead to a net loss of traditional jobs… it may become politically impossible not to bolster national incomes without expanded government assistance… perhaps in the form of U.B.I… our problem is the American political class… they will do whatever it takes to retain power… any welfare distribution policy… [no matter how sane and reasonable]… will be perverted by the politicians in order to maintain power and privilege… Asian manufacturing techniques and robotics coupled with world class A.I. will rule… unfortunately… our political class just doesn’t get it… how will it end? with the human race being devalued… with a loss of purpose and a delusional existence… perhaps sex with a robot coupled with extreme attachment to failed ideologies…. wait………….. we have that now!
Families with some wealth can get by with smaller government. It follows that tax reform should be judged on how well it closes the family wealth gap.In theory, the best way is through the inverse taxation of wealth and income joined with a wealth tax exemption for savings that could be used only for retirement, education and health care.
Imagine all taxpayers with an income tax rate of 28% that could be reduced proportionately down to 8% (with no payroll taxes) by paying an optional wealth tax up to 2%. For example, any citizen might elect an 18% income tax rate joined with a 1% wealth tax rate. Non-citizens would not have the option and would simply pay a flat 28% on income. To encourage middle class success each taxpayer could save up to $500,000 wealth tax free (for retirement, health care or education). To help the Good Stewards, all wealth taxes paid over a lifetime could be used as a credit against the Estate Tax (also set at a 28% rate).
A 4% VAT and 8% C corporation tax would complement the individual tax reform.
Sorry, WordPress has put up a blank screen rather than provide the link.
You can find it on YouTube searching “Fixing the Federal Government”.
Dan, Zorba, and V-Max — would love to hear your comments if you have time.
To work, a BI needs to be a UBI, Unconditional Basic Income, which cannot be lost regardless of the level of earned income. Second, it needs to be minimal, for example set at the federal poverty level, where basic needs are met, but a capable individual will certainly not feel comfortable.
Unlike the current welfare state, which targets +200% of the poverty level in many states, paying individuals NOT to work; a UBI would eliminate 700,000 welfare bureaucrats and provide every incentive to go out and contribute.
A UBI should be considered as the favored option for providing progressivity in the tax code, over a standard deduction, since at the low end it can end welfare as we know it, and it allows us to make favorable changes in the tax code, such as a flat tax, ending deductions, and elimination of taxes on investments.
The UBI substitutes for current “tax expenditures” (deductions) that primarily go to the rich, shifting the code to the benefit of lower income earners, and alleviating arguments that the tax code is unfair. [Everyone will receive the same UBI (adjusted for family size) and pay the same flat rate on income earned.]
The cost of a poverty level UBI for citizens only would be about $2.3 trillion, paid for by $0.9 reduction in current safety-net arrangements plus $1.4 trillion elimination of tax expenditures. [Note that tax expenditures are currently a reduction in revenue, rather than an expense, but elimination has the same non-accounting effect.]
We will never eliminate redistribution of income. That train has left the station. The question is: Do we stick with the current messy system (in a world where job losses are about to explode), or do we move to a 21st century approach which will allow each individual to rapidly adapt?
For more on this you can watch my video (it’s 30 minutes, but watch the first 3 for an overview):
“…even if it could work, it should be rejected on principle. A UBI would redefine the relationship between individuals, families, communities, and the state by giving government the role of provider. It would make work optional and render self-reliance moot.” This sounds too familiar — because in fact it already happened here, as soon as LBJ’s Great Society package was enacted.
The next sentence, though, did not. The “problem” of an underclass on welfare is never going to go away if DC bureaucrats can help it, because the purpose of HHS, like any other agency, is to go on existing, and to do that they have to keep people believing they’re necessary. It wouldn’t do for private charities or even a state program to be seen outdoing them.