A couple of days ago, I wrote about Clemens Schneider’s hypothesis, presented at the European Students for Liberty regional conference in Maastricht, that 1356 was a very important year in European history because of two events that promoted decentralization and federalism.
I also participated in the event and was asked to speak about “Ensuring Sustainable Prosperity in Europe.”
But I spent 90 percent of my speech saying there was very little hope of that happening. I highlighted three points.
- Europe is suffering from anemic growth and is falling further behind the United States.
- Demographic changes in Europe will likely cause even further economic stagnation.
- An ever-rising burden of government spending will further cripple economic performance.
To tie all these points together, I pointed out that worsening fiscal policy doesn’t necessarily mean economic decline. If nations make sufficient improvements in other policy areas (regulation, monetary policy, trade, rule of law and property right), then it is still possible to have more overall freedom and a stronger economy. Indeed, that’s basically what happened in developed nations after World War II.
But that hasn’t been happening in the 21st Century. Here’s a chart I prepared for the students showing changes in overall economic freedom in the major nations of Western Europe from 2000-present.
As you can see, other than Austria’s tiny increase and Greece’s unchanged (but still lowest on the list) score, economic freedom in Europe has been eroding. Indeed, the average decline is about .2 on a 0-10 scale, which isn’t trivial.
I also included the United States, which unfortunately has experienced the biggest decrease of all nations (thanks Bush and Obama!). And I’m disappointed that Switzerland (one of my favorite nations) also has moved in the wrong direction.
To conclude, there was a reprehensible American journalist named Lincoln Steffens who made a trip to the Soviet Union in 1919 and then told American audiences that, “I have seen the future, and it works.” Some might argue we shouldn’t judge him too harshly since it took time for the barbarity of communism to become apparent, but any ideology that puts the state over the individual is a priori evil in my humble opinion.
But I’m digressing. I cite Steffens’ infamous quote because I, too, have seen the future. It’s Europe. And it doesn’t work.
P.S. I did point out that the outlook for European is not theoretically hopeless. Even Greece could climb out of its statist malaise with sustained spending restraint and other market reforms.
P.P.S. My indictment of Europe, I explained, should not be interpreted as an endorsement of the United States. I explained that our long-run outlook was similarly grim (and will probably accelerate in the wrong direction because of the election).
P.P.P.S. Which is why I told the students in my conclusion that they should apply for Australian visas.
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Australia is not a safe haven. It is firmly under the thumb of libs, who will impose their will on the economy in due time.
P.P.P.S. Perhaps it was a historical coincidence in timing, but seems to me that the terrorists have actually won a decisive victory. A few losers catalyzed the decline of a sixteen trillion nation.
Europeanism is a one way street.
It is the road to one percent growth in a world that is trendlining 3-4%
It is the arithmetically deterministic destiny of decline in your worldwide prosperity ranking.
It is what the smartest Americans want — see Silicon Valley.
Past a certain point statism breeds more statism — all the way to the one percent growth marginalization — Which in the twenty first century will come quite fast as a three percent growth deficit compounds rather swiftly.
Statism brings economic malaise and thus reflexively …. more voter calls for more state help and more centralized planning political action — in case you had not noticed. The vicious cycle has closed its embrace.
It was 2001 terrorism that ushered coercive collectivism into majoritarian status. First as warfare, the quintessential form of coercive collectivism. Then the vicious cycle of statism breeding more statism was cemented by Obama and Hillary Clinton, two statists whom the American people ferreted out and elevated into high office. Great will be the legacy of the first black and woman presidents of the United States. The ones that cemented majoritarian dependency on coercive collectivism — and one percent trendline growth to decline.
P.S. It won’t be that obvious. A few good quarters of growth here and there will intersperse into the otherwise dismal trendline — to maintain the narrative that Change into an even bigger state is the only Hope. I bet Americans will ride this all the way to the bottom. Virtually all Europeans have, even before the EU imposed universal slow growth trendline to decline policies. That is too many nearly independent data points to ignore.
P.P.S. Military dominance of a country that has become a slow growth welfare state — and thus its fraction of world GDP keeps shrinking — is impossible. That is one shoe that will also drop in the not so distant future. Americans will live in interesting times. Europeans must be rejoicing that the Great [and pesky] American personal freedom and high growth experiment has finally stepped on the same banana peel as virtually all European nations.
Welcome to the slow growth club. Membership is permanent.
Veritas,
The problem is exactly that Americans will never wonder how an Obama or a Hillary got elected. There is a Merkel and a Hollande and a Renzi and a Tsipras in America’s future — which Americans themselves will elect. Then indeed, perhaps they will wonder how such capitalists as Obama and Hillary ever got elected.
Exactly what is there to crow about America’s future. If the Hildabeast wins tomorrow we will envy Greece and our grandchildren will wonder how creatures such as Obama and Hildabeast could have been elected.
Fortunately after me, the deluge.
Awesome brother!! Dan for president!! Why not 2020
Hartford Campbell. 770-633-3429 BA Speech Communications -UGA JD WOODROW WILSON LAW SCHOOL
Realtor since 1987 – GEORGIA TOTAL REALTY http://www.gatotalrealty.com 770-729-0575 Georgia Real Estate Commission # 142805
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