I’m going to make an assertion that seems utterly absurd.
The enactment of Obamacare may have been good news.
Before sending a team of medical attendants to cart me off to a sanitarium, allow me to elaborate. I’m not saying Obamacare is good policy. After all, I’ve written over and over again that it is a budget-busting boondoggle that will exacerbate our real healthcare crisis of third-party payer.
What I am saying, though, is that Obamacare may turn out to be a major political mistake for the left, one that sets the stage for sweeping free market reforms.
Here’s my six-part hypothesis.
- Our healthcare system as a mess before Obamacare. Normal market forces were crippled by government programs such as Medicare and Medicaid and also undermined by government intervention in the tax code that resulted in pervasive over-insurance that exacerbated the third-party payer problem.
- These various forms of intervention led to all sorts of problems, such as rising prices and indecipherable complexity, and most people blamed that the “free market” and “private” healthcare.
- Obamacare was enacted in 2010, and it was perceived to be a paradigm-shifting change in the healthcare system, even though it was just another layer of bad policy on top of lots of other bad policy. Immediately after the legislation was approved, I offered a rough estimate that we went from a system that was 68 percent dictated by government to one that was 79 percent dictated by government.
- Not surprisingly, all of the same problems still exist, but now they’re exacerbated by the mistakes in Obamacare.
- But because people think we’ve had a paradigm shift and government now is in charge (pay attention, since this is my key argument), they will be much more likely to blame “Obamacare” and “government” for all the warts and inefficiencies of the healthcare system.
- This means the public will be more receptive to pro-market policies, such as Obamacare repeal, tax reforms to reduce over-insurance, as well as the Medicaid and Medicare reforms in the Ryan budget.
All this will be much easier said than done, of course, and it is disconcerting that we’ll probably have to rely on feckless Republicans to implement these reforms.
But at least there’s a plausible scenario for systemic reform, and that wasn’t the case before Obamacare was enacted. In other words, the President’s signature achievement may turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory for the left.
P.S. Watch this excellent video from Reason TV to see how a genuine free market could deliver health care at lower cost and with greater efficiency. For another example, here’s a report from North Carolina on free-market healthcare in action.
P.P.S. This post is part of my let’s-be-optimistic series. Previous editions include:
- The fiscal cliff was a smaller loss than I expected.
- The sequester was a real victory.
- We have good evidence that the Tea Party has made a positive difference.
- The Democratic-controlled Senate rejected a permanent expansion of funds for the IMF.
- The burden of government fiscal policy has been reduced since the 2010 elections.
- The Democrat-controlled Senate approved dynamic scoring.
[…] there’s no easy answer, my back-of-the-envelope guess from back in 2013 is that the US health system is 79 percent government and 21 percent free […]
[…] on public policy. I’ve shared a list of reasons to be optimistic, even on issues such as Obamacare and the Laffer […]
[…] on public policy. I’ve shared a list of reasons to be optimistic, even on issues such as Obamacare and the Laffer […]
[…] some kind of flat tax credit or voucher explicitly designed for that purpose. I fully agree with repeal of Obamacare, and I think an unfettered marketplace would evolve into a system of near-universal catastrophic […]
[…] some kind of flat tax credit or voucher explicitly designed for that purpose. I fully agree with repeal of Obamacare, and I think an unfettered marketplace would evolve into a system of near-universal catastrophic […]
[…] in 2013, I created a back-of-the-envelope “Freedom Meter” to illustrate how Obamacare was best viewed as […]
[…] video included two charts based on my back-of-the envelope calculation, and I shared them in a 2013 column that further discussed the incremental damage of […]
[…] video included two charts based on my back-of-the envelope calculation, and I shared them in a 2013 column that further discussed the incremental damage of […]
[…] to continuously remind ourselves that big government doesn’t work just in case there’s a chance to enact good reforms after Obama leaves […]
[…] I’ll have a semi-optimistic spin. I wrote in 2013 that we should be optimistic about repealing Obamacare and fixing the government-caused […]
[…] I’ll have a semi-optimistic spin. I wrote in 2013 that we should be optimistic about repealing Obamacare and fixing the government-caused […]
[…] I’ll have a semi-optimistic spin. I wrote in 2013 that we should be optimistic about repealing Obamacare and fixing the government-caused […]
[…] healthcare system to one where government has 79-percent control, as I speculated back in 2013, maybe we’ll wind up with a system that’s “only” 73-percent dictated by […]
[…] years ago, I elaborated on this thesis and even put together a couple of charts to emphasize the […]
[…] Yes, there are some positive effects of the Cadillac tax, but those are easily offset by all the features of the law that increase the size and scope of government. […]
[…] Yes, there are some positive effects of the Cadillac tax, but those are easily offset by all the features of the law that increase the size and scope of government. […]
[…] Well, as I recently wrote, this creates an opportunity to help people understand that big government is the problem in health care. […]
[…] some kind of flat tax credit or voucher explicitly designed for that purpose. I fully agree with repeal of Obamacare, and I think an unfettered marketplace would evolve into a system of near-universal catastrophic […]
[…] conclude with some optimism. Click here to read my six-part hypothesis on why this bad law can be […]
[…] conclude with some optimism. Click here to read my six-part hypothesis on why this bad law can be […]
[…] Why We Should Be Optimistic about Repealing Obamacare and Fixing the Healthcare System […]
[…] growing recognition that Obamacare is a turkey that needs to be repealed. No wonder I’m getting more optimistic with each passing […]
[…] recognition that Obamacare is a turkey that needs to be repealed. No wonder I’m getting more optimistic with each passing […]
[…] to rally behind a candidate who offers a compelling message of freedom and prosperity. That’s yet another reason why I’m still optimistic about the fight for […]
[…] anything else in recent years to discredit big government. I also think the flop of Obamacare has rejuvenated interest in – and support for – the types of policies that would make health care system more affordable and efficient. I’ve always feared that […]
[…] on public policy. I’ve shared a list of reasons to be optimistic, even on issues such as Obamacare and the Laffer […]
[…] Needless to say, I’m enjoying the ongoing Obamacare disaster. But not just for reasons of Schadenfreude. The cluster-you-know-what of Obamacare is good news because it increases our chances of repealing the law in a few years (just as I predicted back in April). […]
[…] actually wrote back in April that Obamacare wouldn’t work and that this would create precisely this opportunity. But […]
[…] Needless to say, I’m enjoying the ongoing Obamacare disaster. But not just for reasons of Schadenfreude. The cluster-you-know-what of Obamacare is good news because it increases our chances of repealing the law in a few years (just as I predicted back in April). […]
[…] Jimmy Fallon joke is funny and it reminds me of a very serious point about why we should be at least quasi-optimistic about deep-sixing the Obamacare […]
I’ve been havng some private chuckles as I see that many companies are abandonng employer-paid health insurance as Obamacare makes it more expensive. We may be seeng the groundwork for a shift to people buying their own health insurance. And of course employer-paid health insurance is one of the biggest anti-free market factors in medical care.
[…] I have a six-part hypothesis explaining why we should be optimistic that this can […]
[…] Well, I’ve already explained why I’m optimistic about the possibility of turning Obamacare lemons into free-market lemonade. […]
[…] Well, I’ve already explained why I’m optimistic about the possibility of turning Obamacare lemons into free-market lemonade. […]
[…] I explained back in April, I’m cautiously optimistic that Obamacare will fall apart for the simple reason that […]
[…] conclude with some optimism. Click here to read my six-part hypothesis on why this bad law can be […]
[…] conclude with some optimism. Click here to read my six-part hypothesis on why this bad law can be […]
[…] say libertarianism is unrealistic, that may be an accurate political prediction. I can respond by pointing out reasons why I think it’s possible to reduce the burden of government and make people more free, but there’s no doubt that it’s difficult to make substantial […]
[…] some kind of flat tax credit or voucher explicitly designed for that purpose. I fully agree with repeal of Obamacare, and I think an unfettered marketplace would evolve into a system of near-universal catastrophic […]
[…] some kind of flat tax credit or voucher explicitly designed for that purpose. I fully agree with repeal of Obamacare, and I think an unfettered marketplace would evolve into a system of near-universal catastrophic […]
[…] P.S. I’m not trying to rationalize a bad law. I want Obamacare repealed and I actually am reasonably optimistic that this can happen. […]
[…] Well, as I recently wrote, this creates an opportunity to help people understand that big government is the problem in health care. […]
[…] Well, as I recently wrote, this creates an opportunity to help people understand that big government is the problem in health care. […]
[…] I don’t think our work is hopeless. I’ve already shared many reasons to be hopeful, and we now have some new polling data that should make us more optimistic. According to the folks […]
[…] on public policy. I’ve shared a list of reasons to be optimistic, even on issues such as Obamacare and the Laffer […]
[…] on public policy. I’ve shared a list of reasons to be optimistic, even on issues such as Obamacare and the Laffer […]
[…] recent months, I’ve displayed uncharacteristic levels of optimism on issues ranging from Obamacare to the Laffer […]
[…] recent months, I’ve displayed uncharacteristic levels of optimism on issues ranging from Obamacare to the Laffer […]
[…] Why We Should Be Optimistic about Repealing Obamacare and Fixing the Healthcare System | Internation…. […]
The real concern is that they will only *partly* rollback Obamacare. The real interventions in the healthcare system raising costs may remain, and costs will continue to rise. Then liberals will blame the problem on the rollback, claiming it was “deregulation” even though it wasn’t (as they did with the financial crisis). The public needs to truly learn how much crony capitalism has distorted the healthcare system to dump it all at once, or there may be a phony rollback and then a backlash leading to even more regulation. This page
http://www.politicsdebunked.com/article-list/healthcare
is long but outlines many ways government drives up healthcare prices (including at least one even Cato and NCPA and other sources missed like how Medical Loss Ratios which claim to be to lower insurance overhead provide incentive for health costs to rise). It notes food is even more important to health than medical care, yet there are no cries for “single payer food”, and that medical prices have risen as fast as per capita disposable income for over 50 years due to government intervention.
[…] to rally behind a candidate who offers a compelling message of freedom and prosperity. That’s yet another reason why I’m still optimistic about the fight for […]
[…] to rally behind a candidate who offers a compelling message of freedom and prosperity. That’s yet another reason why I’m still optimistic about the fight for […]
Dick – i agree that Katherine’s comment was funny. I do enjoy Zorba’s posts though and I believe he is correct here. I’d be happy to be proven wrong.
I kinda liked Katherine’s “zorbaish comment” comment.
On the topic at hand, though, I think the Zorbameister’s argument carries the day over Dan Our Man. Too many ill-educated lemmings travelling down The Road.
Zorba I meant only my normal level of disrespect. I see that Facebook is inserting itself onto people’s cell phones which should lower the attention span of the average voter to levels that would preclude a comment of your usual length from being comprehended.
Empirical evidence from Europe including many voter-lemming data points shows that virtually no country in Europe has taken this optimistic path. That, even before the homogenizing force of the EU emerged, i.e. in an era when every European voter-lemming island was more or less in control of its own destiny. Yet they all walked down the same path to socialization of healthcare.
By 2018, ObamaCare will support twenty million on its subsidy books. How many of those are likely to vote for its repeal? And those twenty million does not include those who will happily pay the small penalty, knowing that they can get full coverage at the same price that you pay, once they get sick and need it. Those are also unlikely to favor repeal. ObamaCare may be adding only 11% statism (per Mr. Mitchell) but it adds a good 20% to the total mentality of dependency. The mentality of not having to earn your 6x prosperity multiple over the rest of the world. This 6x prosperity multiple cannot go on like this — so it won’t!
I have been looking, in vain, for any instances where the US road to serfdom seems to differ from the path already travelled by euro-voter-lemmings. There are virtually no differences of any substance. All moths are attracted to the light. Even starred and striped ones. We can now finally smell the wings of the Euro-voter-lemmings being singed, yet we perceive the light of mandatory collectivism as our only chance. Such is the comfort that flatter effort-reward curves wield over voter-lemming months.
Sure, according to the “overshoot” scenario presented by Mr. Mitchell, there could still be some systemic and very turbulent event/crisis that shakes up the western world voter-lemmings and averts their hopeful march towards the inert uniformity of mandatory collectivism. But we saw how the last such event, the financial crisis, only propelled the western voter-lemmings towards even more mandatory collectivism. Will a stronger readjustment shock have the opposite effect? Will a protracted wretched decline (1950-79 UK style) make the lemmings reconsider their convergence march? Not that likely.
In either case, whether through protracted wretched decline or crisis, the western world voter-lemmings are in for a major adjustment as they slide from their once 4-6x prosperity multiple position towards the world average. Just like with previous mandatory collectivism disasters, it will be a misfortune of their own making. The three billion awakening souls of the emerging world are on their way breaking out of statism while the western world is embracing it. Convergence will be swift. The readjustment monumental.
P.S. Katherine, “…long Zorbaish comment?” Oh boy, just imagine how much time I’ll have on my busy hands once I sign up for ObamaCare! Relieved from actually earning my lifetime health costs.
Steve Playton I fear you are correct withholding any optimism. I cannot get my neighbors to understand that health insurance is not the same as health care; they think everything will be peachy and free if the government would just take over all health related everything.
It’s rather frightening actually.
Dan, Your scenario is plausible, and I hope it plays out. However, I am not so optimistic. With a compliant national media, Obama and the Democrats may well be able to claim that the failings of the healthcare system now are a result of evil insurance companies, and, therefore, the only real solution is for government to take over 100% of the healthcare industry (instead of only 79%, as in your post).
I had a long Zorbaish comment to make here but in brief I think even the dumbest, greediest Politian looking at this monstrosity must have had the thought that the law of unintended consequences is going to a *itch on this one.
Since the current mess is the exact result of the government messing with wage and price controls from years ago, I think that is a confident analysis.
Simply speaking, obamacare is the prize jewel in the current regime’s favorite form of vote buying, which is crony capitalism in its finest form of course. Benito would be proud.
It’s been sold to the useful idiots as a miracle cure for the country’s wrecked & mangled medical system, caused by too many years of excessive government abuse, involvement, and manipulation. This latest version of Frankenstein medical care soon to be released on everyone is a complete fraud. It’s a disaster that will produce much higher costs — just the opposite as what it was sold as. But that doesn’t mean a tinkers damn to the political parasites who comprise the system (hospital chains, insurance companies, suppliers, medical equipment manufacturers, govt employees, unions, etc, etc), because they have a “vested interest” to protect. These are the members of one of the most powerful cartels in our current banana-republic, and they have the most to gain from implementing ObamaCare — besides the politicians who passed the bill, of course. But sadly, most future victims of this monopoly of medical services will fail to realize this one very-simply-fact: those who advocate & support more government involvement, do so because they BENEFIT from it!
Here’s a little taste of what it’ll be like when implemented. Remember the 70′s era of gas shortages and long gas lines? If you lived during those years then you got a sample of how it will be when you try to get in to see your government designated & approved doctor in the near future — much higher prices and much longer wait times. Welcome to the new medicine that’s about to befall us.
[…] via Why We Should Be Optimistic about Repealing Obamacare and Fixing the Healthcare System | Internation…. […]
Reblogged this on Gds44's Blog.
I agree with the premise that this will be an albatross around the neck of the left, but I’m not confident that the Republicans stand any chance of using it against Obama. While it IS his signature legislation and pretty much the only thing to which he’s allowed his name to be attached, the majority of uneducated voters seem to struggle to associate anything bad going on in our country with Obama himself. Extremely frustrating. That being said, our only chance is you being right on this.
Indeed, the health insurance marketplace was a mess long before the PPACA. Yet if Obamacare’s “Health Insurance Marketplace” succeeds, central planners will have won. If it fails, however, the failure will be decried as a failure of the [ahem] health insurance marketplace. The tyrants will then demand that insurance companies be brought under firmer control.
Probably many people will neglect “to find health insurance at the Health Insurance Marketplace” even though they’re eligible. (Follow the link to a short animated video.) So, the Cass Sunsteins of America will prescribe new legislation that includes firmer nudges of people who, according to Cass, are being nudged for their own good.
Of course, it’s possible that the “Health Insurance Marketplace” was intended to be a failure. Still, as Dan suggested, there is a nasty reversal that Obamacrats might have overlooked in their frantic hurry to do good:
“About the Marketplace
The [Health Insurance] Marketplace is DESIGNED to help you find health insurance that fits your budget, with less hassle.”
Optimism and hope. Unfortunately too many ‘mercans do not possess a “logic” gene. Defining the issue: It is healthcare, not health insurance. For the good of our country I remain optimistic that the socialist program known as “Obamacare” will be relegated to the trash bin of history.
[…] Why We Should Be Optimistic about Repealing Obamacare and Fixing the Healthcare System […]