If Obamacare is a success, as the White House and establishment media would like us to believe, then why is the Obama Administration so anxious to hide the numbers?
After all, surely we haven’t set the bar so low that the Administration can claim victory simply because it has coerced and/or bribed a few million people into an Obamacare plan?
Here’s some of what the Wall Street Journal recently wrote about a very suspicious change in the way the government measures health insurance coverage.
Out of the blue, the Census Bureau has changed how it counts health insurance—at the precise moment when ObamaCare is roiling the insurance markets. Since 1987, the Current Population Survey, or CPS, has collected information on the health-insurance coverage status of Americans. …But this year the Census revamped the CPS household insurance questions, muddying comparisons between the pre- and post-ObamaCare numbers. …Robert Pear of the New York Times obtained internal Census documents that note that the new CPS system produces lower estimates of the uninsured as an artifact of how the questionnaire is structured. …For changes this substantial, standard procedure would be to ask the new and old questions concurrently. With an overlap, researchers could study changes over time using the long-term historical information without introducing bias, as well as interpret emerging developments with new tools. …this sudden change will undermine public trust in the supposedly nonpartisan institutions of government. Muddying a useful source of information about ObamaCare’s results is definitely unfortunate, but our guess is that it wasn’t coincidental.
Allow me to re-phrase that last sentence. The disingenuous change to the Census data on insurance is about as coincidental as the Administration’s efforts to re-define poverty and about as random as the IRS’s decision to only undermine and attack the political rights of Tea Party groups.
But there’s more to say about Obamacare than merely pointing out dishonest manipulation of government data.
We also have some very bad news for taxpayers.
Here’s what Chuck Blahous wrote for E21, starting with an observation of how the media wants to boost Obama.
Earlier this month there was tremendous press attention to new data indicating that enrollment in the Affordable Care Act (ACA)’s health insurance exchanges had surpassed 7 million. …much of the press, desperate to write something positive after months of reporting on website glitches and insurance plan cancellations, characterized the milestone as good political news for ACA supporters.
I’ve already explained that the supposed good news is actually bad news, but Chuck has some very important details on how taxpayers are especially vulnerable.
…what is unfolding before our eyes is a colossal fiscal disaster, poised to haunt legislators and taxpayers for decades to come.It is quite possible that the ACA is shaping up as the greatest act of fiscal irresponsibility ever committed by federal legislators. …the ACA is a commitment to permanently subsidize comprehensive health insurance for millions who could not otherwise afford it, which the federal government has no viable plan to finance. Moreover, experience shows that it is very difficult to scale back such spending once large numbers of Americans have been made dependent.
The article includes a graph that compares the early costs of major entitlement programs.
As you can see, Obamacare’s fiscal burden is second only to Medicare.
Chuck then explains that the costs in the early years for new entitlements are just a drop in the bucket.
…after these initial rollouts, Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid costs grew far faster than originally envisioned, sometimes due to subsequent legislation, sometimes due to unanticipated healthcare cost growth. It wouldn’t be surprising for either factor to affect the ACA, which would be even more problematic… We do know that the ACA’s financing mechanisms are already falling apart. The ACA’s much-reported website glitches and enrollment shortfalls had actually suggested an upside; if enrollment continued to fall short of previous projections, it was possible that some of the fiscal damage could be contained. But if enrollment has picked up as the law’s financing mechanisms disintegrate, the fiscal damage will be worse than anticipated.
Needless to say, this is hardly shocking news.
Entitlements inevitably become fiscal swamps and the costs almost always are far higher than the early estimates.
Here’s an oldie-but-goodie video I narrated on the topic of ever-climbing taxpayer burdens for health entitlements.
I’d like to claim that this video proves I have great insight and brilliance, but that would be akin to claiming superior ability for predicting that Chicago is warmer in July than in February.
P.S. Since we’re on the topic of government-run healthcare, I recently wrote about Vermont’s plans for a single-payer system.
Except I didn’t really write about the Green Mountain State’s experiment with socialism. Instead, I used the opportunity to discuss third-party payer, which is America’s real government-created healthcare problem.
Now it’s time to say something specifically about what’s happening in Vermont. Though, to be more accurate, all I really need to do is quote Megan McArdle’s column from Bloomberg.
Of the plans that states have hatched for the Affordable Care Act, none has been bolder than that of Vermont, which wants to implement a single-payer health-care system, along the lines of what you might find in Britain or Canada.
Except Vermont politicians haven’t bothered to find a way to pay for this boondoggle.
Vermont needs to find some way to pay for it. Although Act 48 required Vermont to create a single-payer system by 2017, the state hasn’t drafted a bill spelling out how to raise the additional $1.6 billion a year (based on the state’s estimate) the system needs. The state collected only $2.7 billion in tax revenue in fiscal year 2012, so that’s a vexingly large sum to scrape together. …Paying for this program would likely make Vermont the highest-taxed state in the nation, by quite a lot.
Megan thinks the cost would so high that Vermont will abandon the scheme. And she has a very optimistic assessment on what this means nationally.
…this is going to be expensive. So expensive that I doubt Vermont is actually going to go forward with it. This should be instructive for those who hope — or fear — that Obamacare has all been an elaborate preliminary to a nationwide single-payer system. It isn’t. The politics are impossible, and even if they weren’t, the financing would be unthinkable.
I very much hope she’s right, and I’ve actually expressed optimism that Obamacare has changed (in a favorable way) the political dynamics on the healthcare issue.
But I’m still not quite as hopeful as Megan.
Leftists are too clever to make an all-or-nothing push for single-payer on the national level. They know that’s too risky.
But they have been quite adept at incremental changes to expand the role of government and undermine markets.
And if they ever get a new source of revenue, like an energy tax, financial transactions tax, or a value-added tax, then they’ll be able to push for even more statism.
P.P.S. If you want some fun reading about single-payer, check out these horror stories about the system in the United Kingdom.
[…] of all. And the news that Vermont has cancelled its proposed single-payer healthcare scheme (as predicted by Megan McArdle) shows us why federalism is such a good […]
[…] of all. And the news that Vermont has cancelled its proposed single-payer healthcare scheme (as predicted by Megan McArdle) shows us why federalism is such a good […]
[…] all the controversy over the failed and costly Obamacare program, it’s understandable that other entitlements aren’t […]
[…] all the controversy over the failed and costly Obamacare program, it’s understandable that other entitlements aren’t […]
Omaba Care is failing many latino americans. I spoke to one hard working Latino independent nurse who said he had to “drop his obama care” plan because he has diabetes and the plan was way too expensive. What a joke.
Everyone in the house and the senate, and all their employees went on the exchanges the same day as all other Americans did. Very few took exemptions, and those that did were all republicans. This is a fact, You can find it anywhere on google.
This article is just more gop deception and lies.
Actually, the bill passed the normal way. It went through many committee and sub committee reviews by both parties, and was commented on extensively and then was read aloud on the floor of the house and senate before it was finally voted on. It can’t actually get to the floor and be voted on unless it has been through this rigorous process. Everyone that wanted to, read it before it passed. No one voted for or against it without reading it except by personal choice.
As for the rest of your comment, what does it mean? Who are these people ‘behind him” shouting instructions? Who are the people pulling his strings besides the corporate interest that pull all representative’s strings?
Not sure what you even mean.
as usual this obamascare article fails to mention that there are other health care bills. there must be a media black out. Paul Ryan has a health care bill, just search for “paul ryan health care bill” the Heritage foundation has it’s health care bill. I knew about the Ryan-Wyden Bill early in the Obama/Romney campaign. this bill is no longer being considered. another bill no longer being considered is the Wyden-Bennett bill. for some reason the people are being led to believe so called “obamacare” is the only health care bill. a better article is who would profit if so called “obamacare” were to be replaced.
AirJackie–YOU are as big a liar as Obama. But than most liberals are. You make up garbage that is absolutely NOT true. Saying Senator Rubio signed up for obamacare and saved money is the biggest lie you have told as yet. As a senator these people do NOT sign up for obamacare but have their own sweet healthcare deal like Obama, Pelosi and Reid who have no worries about healthcare! ANYONE who has actually signed up for obamacare know that it is the most horrible highest deductible garbage that was ever written!!! There are 1,000 angry and unhappy about obamacare to maybe one that is happy. You lies will go against you. NO ONE will believe you like that pathological liar Obama!!
Obama is nothing but a talking puppet for the left democrats who are really in charge behind the scenes. As you have seen, Obama talks and talks and talks but never ever does he walk. He is given commands by the group behind him who pulls his strings. Obama won’t fight them since his whole passed is against him. When you passed is that bad you do as your told or be threatened. Obamacare is the worst piece of legislature that has EVER been passed. As Pelosi says, you have to pass it first THAN read what is in it. ONLY a democrat liberal would do anything that stupid!
The entire world considers Obama a LIAR! No one trusts him. His former chief of staff – Emanuel – has now been outed for lying to the people about crime statistics in Chicago! Chicago Democrats are lying incompetents. Illinois is controlled by Chicago Democrats. That would explain why Illinois has the 2nd highest unemployment rate and worst fiscal position of all states. Obama was trained to be stupid and corrupt.
As the Koch bros know things were much better in the 50’s when all American paid in the government but a selected group got benefits. Remember many working Americans had no rights and could not vote. Things went well because the Democrat Dixiecrats and Republicans worked to assure nothing changed. Minorities were kept in their place but paid their full share of State and Federal taxes. Well now we have the Tea Party replacing the Republican Party and things will go back. The thought that the richest Nation in the World would dare to allow citizens affordable health care can’t happen. Many nations like Canada have health care for their citizens. Even Romneycare in Mass. is doing great. President GW Bush saw it was great and formed health care in Africa that citizens could use and get affordable rates. But we are a Nation of as Republican/Tea Party members say Christian Moral Values and we hear our lawmakers say this is not what God wanted. President Nixon formed this great Health care plan and announced it to the public but he never got to get it passed while he was in office. Mitt Romney used it with success. But the idea of President Obama bringing it to law is not what lawmakers or many people want. Speaker Boehner said he signed up Nov. 22nd showing how he did it and cheering his low rates as he said the other lawmakers signed up Oct. 1st. Senator Paul first tried to lie but later said he signed up and save but did not like it. Senator Rubio giving a speech to a crowd not to sign up for Obamacare. A reporter asked Rubio did he sign up he said yes but only did it because he save money for his family coverage. Yes the Ads and reporters who pushed for citizens not to sign up did pretty well but most people read the information and others remembered it from Nixon while some just talk to friends/family who have Romneycare.
Actually this was debunked before it was published. The mechanism leading to census question changes started in 2009, long before ACA was law. To say they are out of the blue is provably false.
Cuba’s infant mortality rate is calculated differently than the USA. Don’t use that to bolster your opinion, Andrew Garland.
I hope that we will see that we don’t need the medicos as much as they want us to believe. Maybe the ACA will force people to take care of themselves and leave trips to the medical profession as a last resort. Western medicine is full of barbaric treatment with a few bright spots in emergency care, surgery and supportive care.
AS Simple as obama The LYING MACHINE OUT OF ILLINOIS
HIDES THE TRUTH,AND IS NEVER HONEST.
What is the fuss? Cuba is only 90 miles offshore and is full of doctors willing to travel to supply fine healthcare to Venezuela and Argentina at a great savings compared to the salaries of US doctors.
Cuba has a great health system, as measured by low infant mortality. It is an amazing accomplishment when you consider that Cuba has trouble supplying or buying enough toilet paper for the population. Healthcare yes, toilet paper no.
Aside from that puzzle, let’s import from Cuba as many doctors as it takes to upgrade the healthcare of the US. If we need more, I am certain that Cuba will train and certify more. Cuba needs the money. For a little more money, they might reveal the socialist secret to great healthcare for less.
Why go through a wrenching conversion to socialism/communism when Cuba has already done it and achieved all of the efficiencies. This is a simple make or buy decision. It is expensive to make doctors in the US, so let’s buy them from Cuba. Let’s enjoy the fruits of Cuban socialism. (I won’t say “profit from”.)
EasyOpinions.blogspot.com
It would be easy to get government out of healthcare. Have them distribute 70% of the funds currently being spent to every citizen as deposits to Health Savings Accounts, and have individuals and families buy coverage in the market place. If they don’t buy some form of insurance, they could not use the funds so there would be no reason not to get coverage, especially if they would be personally liable for unpaid medical bills.
An additional 20% of current funds could be set aside to buy special coverage for those with pre-existing conditions. [Note that with everyone acquiring coverage, pre-existing conditions for those without coverage would quickly disappear.]
If we pegged the above 70% to inflation, it would grow in real terms by 1%, along with population growth. Assuming GDP growth higher than 1%, we could grow our way out of this mess, while the portion for pre-existing conditions disappears.