President Obama repeatedly assures us that he only wants higher taxes on the rich as part of his class-warfare agenda.
But I don’t trust him. In part because he’s a politician, but also because there aren’t enough rich people to finance big government (not to mention that the rich easily can alter their financial affairs to avoid higher tax rates).
Honest leftists are beginning to admit that their real target is the middle class. Here are a few examples.
- The New York Times endorsed higher taxes on the middle class in 2010.
- The then-House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer also gave a green light that year to higher taxes on the middle class.
- Earlier this year, MIT professor and former IMF official Simon Johnson argued that the middle class should pay more tax.
- The Washington Post also called for higher taxes on the middle class this year, as did Vice President Joe Biden’s former economist.
In other words, politicians often say they want to tax the rich, but the real target is the middle class. Indeed, this is the history of tax policy. In a post earlier this year, warning the folks in the Cayman Islands not to impose an income tax, I noted how the U.S. income tax began small and then swallowed up more and more people.
…the U.S. income tax began in 1913 with a top rate of only 7 percent and it affected less than 1 percent of the population. But that supposedly benign tax has since become a monstrous internal revenue code that plagues the nation today.
The same thing is true elsewhere in the world.
Allister Heath explains for London’s City A.M. newspaper.
The introduction of income taxes around the world have tended to follow a very similar pattern over the past couple of centuries. First, we get generally low income tax rates, with most people exempt and with the highest rate only affecting a few people relatively lightly. Eventually, tax rates shoot up for everybody – including to crippling levels for top earners – and millions more are caught by income tax. The next stage is that the ultra-high tax rates for top earners are reduced to manageable levels – but ever more people are brought into the tax system, with the higher brackets also catching vastly more folk.
By the way, you can see that Allister makes a reference to tax rates being reduced for top earners. That’s largely because many politicians learned an important lesson about the Laffer Curve. Sometimes, the best way to “soak the rich” is by lowering their tax rates. Unfortunately, President Obama still needs some remedial education on this topic.
Allister then looks at some specific U.K. data revealing how more and more middle class people are now subject to higher tax rates.
The biggest change in the UK has been the number of people paying what is now the 40p tax rate: up six-fold in thirty years, from 674,000 in 1979-80, 2.5m in 1999-2000 to 4.048m in 2011-12. This number will jump again to around 5m in 2014, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies. When Margaret Thatcher came to power, just 2.6 per cent of taxpayers paid the top rate; by the time of the next election, 16.7 per cent will.
If Obama and other statists get their way, we’ll see similar statistic in the United States. Higher income tax rates for the rich will mean higher income tax rates for the rest of us. Though I’m even more worried about a value-added tax, which would be a huge burden on ordinary people and a revenue machine for greedy politicians.
It’s worth noting, by the way, that the American tax code actually is more “progressive” than the tax codes of Europe’s welfare states. This is largely because we don’t screw over poor and middle-class taxpayers with a VAT.
P.S. Since I mentioned the Laffer Curve above, I should emphasize that the goal of good tax policy should be to maximize growth, not to maximize tax revenue.
P.P.S. And don’t forget that poor and middle-income taxpayers also will be hurt because slower growth is an inevitable consequence when tax rates climb and the burden of government spending increases.
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What is happening in the tax arena is just an instantiation of the general mechanism whereby a republic most often degenerates into a pitchfork democracy — irreversibly so. Fluid majorities gang up and screw minorities until everyone gets screwed.
So initially, the most productive are the target minority and the tax camel sticks its nose under the tent. Once the tax engulfs a good percentage of the most productive, a vindictive upper class gangs up with the lower class and — and of course politicians intrinsically interested to managing ever higher revenue –to expand the tax to the now middle class minority. Finally, vindictive upper and middle classes, and again the inherent interest of politicians, gang up to impose tax — say VAT — on the lower class.
Politicians win by creating the resources to finance the very product they supply: central planning and mandatory collectivism. Everyone gets screwed by the relentlessly compounding slow growth rates into wretched decline. The Change becomes irreversible, all Hope is lost, decline is entrenched.
That is what will happen, not because it is a conspiracy, but because there simply isn’t enough productivity and motivation to “spread around”. If you not only make the rich pay their fair share, but outright impose French confiscatory tax rates on America’s most productive, then every American will get approximately an additional two thousand dollars in redistribution money. And then what? Yes, you have managed to seriously clobber motivation and per capita production, but has redistribution been satiated? Once the Occupy types, who are already in the top fifteen percent of wealth worldwide, get their two thousand dollars per head per year in redistribution money, will they be satiated? And what incentives will that world provide? What will differentiate America from the rest of the world that will justify her remaining most prosperous nation in the world?
The trajectory is clear. Decline is just around the corner. America’s growth trendline under the flatter incentives that are already being rolled out is, most likely, already down to two percent — when the economy recovers that is. That is an inescapable route to decline.
I do think this time is different. This time the collectivist advances that Americans are making are happening in an environment where America’s margin of advantage to the rest of the world has finally worn very thin. America will not survive. America will fall. The desperation vicious cycle is just around the corner. Actually it is already here. Americans electing Obama to fix Bush’s mistakes was the textbook entrance into the vicious cycle of decline.
The imposition of an income tax must, by necessity, eventually extend to all incomes. However, there is an innate ability on the part of the ‘rich’ to avoid most taxes, because it is only they who possess the capital required to pay experts to devise means of lowering the tax burden (think paying tax lawyers essentially $1000 an hour). The target most promising for those who would successfully grab huge amounts of money in the form of taxes would necessarily be the middle class. The middle class has the most money of those who cannot afford the price of tax experts, and it has always been the goal of ‘progressives’ to hit the middle class with large tax increases. It fits into their philosophy of being much more able to decide what to do with wealth than the ‘little people’ who would probably just spend it on fancy cars and big screen TVs. It is for our own good, we just don’t know it.