Actually, if you want good election predictions, don’t listen to me. I’m just an amateur without any special expertise. If you want real knowledge, I encourage you to visit these three sites:
Realclearpolitics.com, which has good summaries of polling data and predictions based on that data.
Intrade.com, which is a political betting market site, so you are seeing estimates based on people defending their views with cold, hard cash.
Fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com, which is Nate Silver’s site and seems thoroughly researched.
But since several of you have emailed for my thoughts, I predict the number of House Republicans will jump from 178 to 242, for a gain of 64.
In the Senate, the GOP delegation will climb from 41 to 48 (I hope all of you can figure out that’s a gain of seven seats). Since there’s a lot of attention being paid to the Nevada race, I will specifically predict that Harry Reid goes down.
By the way, for any of you in southern in Florida, I’ll be at the Allen West victory party tonight. Stop by and say hello.
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[…] Last month, I predicted that Republicans would wind up with 242 seats in the House and 48 in the Senate. […]
Wow! Superb post! So much information!
I believe that common people are esentially classical liberals that hate politicians that want to increase their power and control and punishment power over the people and that want to tax and spend even more $trillions that belong to the people.
Obama and the democrats have been tireless in trying to increase their power & control & punishment power over the people and in trying to take even more $trillions from people and to to create even more dependency from politicians and bureucrats. So a victory for republicans, that promote less those power & control & punishment & tax & spend agendas would not be that surprising eventough the swing in the republicans directions would be HUGE!!
I predict the GOP will pick up 78 seats. http://goo.gl/3eeoD