When I was in London last week for Boris Johnson’s landslide victory, many people asked me whether Trump would win again in 2020.
Since I was wrong about 2016, I told them I wasn’t the right person to ask.
That being said, Trump has some positive economic tailwinds.
For those of you who care about political outcomes, there’s a new CNN poll of battleground states.
It’s good news for Republicans, particularly if one assumes that there are some people who don’t want to admit that they will vote for Trump (which seems to have been true in 2016).
Political betting markets also are pointing to a Trump victory.
Here’s a screenshot showing the 2019 odds of success for the various candidates. As you can see Trump’s numbers are trending upwards – including a positive bump after the House voted for impeachment!
Both polls and betting markets were wrong in 2016, so take all this data with a grain of salt.
For those who care about economic policy, I’ll simply regurgitate my usual comment that Trump is good on some issues (taxes and regulation) and bad on other issues (trade and spending).
I expect this pattern to continue if he’s reelected.
The big wild card is monetary policy.
As I said in the interview, I worry there’s a bubble caused by an easy-money approach. And bad things happen when bubbles pop.
P.S. I should have mentioned that the employment-population data is not as positive as the unemployment-rate data.
P.P.S. I mentioned macroeconomic political forecasts in the interview. I wrote about those predictions back in October.
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I still find it amazing every time I see a poll that 45 percent or more of those polled would support such economic policies as espoused by Warren or Sanders. Or maybe it’s just ignorance and it’s down to personality voting. Sad, if nothing else.
biden is willing to destroy hundreds of thousands of American jobs in pursuit of some green utopia… sanders wants assurance that wages in mexico will reach the equivalent of $15.00 pr. hr… he also wants the criminal prosecution of energy company executives for damaging the planet… and warren… she’s intent on confiscating personal wealth sufficient to allow government to create that elusive socialist utopia the marxists and crypto-communists are so fond of droning on and on about… these people are lunatics… many of us are lukewarm trump supporters… but in spite of his shortfalls trump lives in the real world… and he is likely to cause less damage to a to our society than the socialists and crypto-communists in the democrat party… to them trump supporters are ignorant… deplorable… odorous… walmart shoppers… with a bible in their shirt pocket… and a 1911 tucked in the small of their back… not only are socialists humorless… and ill informed… they have no idea how committed the underclass is to liberty… the democrat front runners are clueless as to the unintended consequences of their policies… trump is an old man… at present… he is healthy mentally and physically… if he retains his health… (even with an impeachment…) he will be re-elected… by a landslide… once again… it’s the lesser of the evils… the more government we allow the political class to create… the more difficult it will be to pass on a prosperous and free society to our children… deep in the American lexicon… it’s there… the desire for liberty… and opportunity… it goes unspoken… but it’s at the core of trump’s support… that’s why he’s gonna win……………………………………………… Merry Christmas………..
It’s hard for someone who loves actual Liberty, as in Christian Liberty, to respect someone who cannot see that the Democrat Party is the biggest enemy of basic Liberty at the present moment.
Too bad “Libertarians” can’t see that if the Democrat Party is destroyed, that would actually allow more pressure in support of Liberty to be brought against the Republican Party. The Democrat Party pulls the Overton Window not just to the left, but towards Totalitarianism of a kind that transcends any notions previously imagined by ordinary Americans.