Earlier today, I gave a speech about populism and capitalism at the Free Market Road Show in Thessaloniki, Greece.
But I’m not writing about my speech (read this and this if you want to get an idea of what I said about American policy under Trump). Instead, I want to share some remarkable data from a presentation by Ewa Balcerowicz of Poland’s Center for Social and Economic Research.
She talked about “The Post Socialist Transition in Poland in a Comparative Perspective” and showed that Poland and Spain has similar living standards after World War II. But over the next 40 years, thanks to the brutal communist system imposed by the Soviet Union, Poland fell far behind.
But look what has happened over the past 25 years.
Per-capita GDP has skyrocketed in Poland and the gap between the two nations has dramatically narrowed.
So why is Poland now rising relative to Spain?
For the simple reason that public policy has moved in the right direction. Here’s the data from Economic Freedom of the World, comparing Poland’s score in 1990 and today. Poland has jumped from 3.54 to 7.42, and the nation has jumped from a dismal ranking of #104 to a respectable ranking of #40.
By the way, Spain’s score also has increased, but by a much smaller amount. And because the world has become more free, Spain’s ranking has dropped. Indeed, Spain now ranks below Poland
Which means that we shouldn’t be surprised if per-capita GDP in Poland soon jumps about Spanish levels.
Just as Poland has out-paced Ukraine because it has better policy.
Here are additional examples showing the long-run benefits of pro-market policy.
- Chile vs. Argentina vs. Venezuela
- Hong Kong vs. Cuba
- North Korea vs. South Korea
- Cuba vs. Chile
- Hong Kong vs. Argentina
- Singapore vs. Jamaica
- United States vs. Hong Kong and Singapore
- Botswana vs. other African nations
And here’s a must-watch video on the relationship between good policy and better economics performance.
All of which helps to explain why I’m so disappointed in both Bush and Obama. Their statist policies have caused a drop in America’s score and relative ranking.
[…] But I obviously have overlooked Poland’s progress (even though I wrote about that nation’s relative success in both 2014 and 2017). […]
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[…] Poland after the collapse of communism. […]
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[…] Poland after the collapse of communism. […]
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[…] Estoniju i Hrvatsku, Tajvan i Kinu, Panamu i Venezuelu, Bocvanu i Zimbabve, Poljsku i Ukrajinu (ili Poljsku i Španjolsku?), pa i Hong Kong i Kubu… ili nekoć dva bloka podijeljene Europe, odnosno Zapadnu i Istočnu […]
I would love to see that graph versus Spain run up to 2002 when Poland joined the EU and those stupendous EU agricultural subsidies and convergence funding really got to work.
And the same graph from 2003 to present.
My bet would be on a slower convergence post-2003 because government directed subsidies usually bugger things up, but it would be interesting to have my prejudice validated.
The biggest problem with Poland is what the former Interior Minister called in private the “theoretical state”. Foreign influence, post-Communist influence and organized crime had left the free marketeers supine and powerless. Repatriated profits, hostile takeovers to close down rivals, tax preferences for foreign businesses, lack of credit available for SMEs etc. etc. meant that Poland was left under-developed. Even major infrastructure works like ports were left undone, because the Germans didn’t want competition. And so, Poland faced the classic problem of a nascent economy that needed a good dose of protectionism to avoid rapacious, short-termist foreign exploitation. Not the capitalist ideal, I know.