I almost feel sorry for the Obama Administration’s spin doctors. Every month, they probably wait for the unemployment numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the same level of excitement that people on death row wait for their execution date.
This has been going on for a while and today’s new data is another good example.
As this chart indicates, the White House promised that the unemployment rate today would be almost down to 5 percent if we enacted the so-called stimulus back in 2009. Instead, the new numbers show that the jobless rate is 7.9 – almost 3.0 percentage points higher.
I enjoy using this chart to indict Obamanomics, in part because it’s a two-fer. I get to criticize the Administration’s overall record, and I simultaneously get to take a jab at Keynesian spending schemes.
What’s not to love?
That being said, I don’t think the above chart is completely persuasive. The White House argues, with some justification, that this data simply shows that they underestimated the initial severity of the recession. There’s some truth to that, and I’ll be the first to admit that it wouldn’t be fair to blame Obama for a bleak trendline that existed when he took office (but I will blame him for continuing Bush’s policies of excessive spending and costly intervention).
That’s why I think the data from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve is more damning. It looks at all the recessions and recoveries in the post-World War II era, and presumably provides a more neutral benchmark.
As you can see from this chart of job creation during all post-World War II recoveries, there’s one period that stands out for having the worst performance. Take a wild guess which line includes the Obama years.
An Obama defender will argue that this chart is unfair because the recession began during the Bush years.
Since there’s no significant difference between Bush’s policies and Obama’s policies, I don’t think that’s a strong defense, but let’s bend over backwards and instead look at job creation during recovery periods.
These numbers are a bit more favorable (or less damning) to Obama, but you can see that job creation for this recovery has been far below the average. Indeed, it only surpasses Bush’s job numbers coming out of the 2001 recession.
But I’m not surprised that the job numbers for Bush and Obama are both dismal. As stated above, they both pursued a statist agenda (though a Bush defender doubtlessly will point out that unemployment didn’t drop that much in 2001, so it would have been impossible to have a strong post-recession bounce).
The real lesson to be learned is that we live in an era of higher taxes on productive activity, a heavier burden of government spending, and more costly government regulation and intervention. And since we’re now more like Europe, the “new normal” is to have weak European-style economic numbers.
[…] the “jobless recovery” of the Obama […]
[…] be sure, that’s good news when compared to the much higher rates of joblessness that plagued the nation a few years ago. But one of the reasons the unemployment rate has dropped is that many people have left the labor […]
[…] many occasions, I’ve cited that number, usually to point out that the unemployment rate is far higher than the Obama Administration […]
[…] Using data from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, I showed last week that job creation – depending on how one wants to measure the business cycle – is either the worst or close to the worst for any period since World War II. […]
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[…] is the weakest job performance for any recovery since the end of World War […]
[…] many occasions, I’ve cited that number, usually to point out that the unemployment rate is far higher than the Obama Administration […]
[…] many occasions, I’ve cited that number, usually to point out that the unemployment rate is far higher than the Obama Administration […]
[…] many occasions, I’ve cited that number, usually to point out that the unemployment rate is far higher than the Obama Administration […]
[…] Nobody should believe them, of course, since they used this same discredited theory to justify the so-called stimulus and all their predictions were wildly wrong. […]
[…] Using data from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, I showed last week that job creation – depending on how one wants to measure the business cycle – is either the worst or close to the worst for any period since World War II. […]
I wouldn’t worry about the President’s spin doctors. They have fairly easy jobs. I was watching Morning Joe when today’s jobs report came out. The CNBC reporter mentioned only as an aside that the unemployment rate went up. He was ecstatic over the number of jobs created (no mention of the jobs lost).
So after two days reports on rising unemployment and contracting GDP, Joe Scarborough’s summary? “Good news then.”
[…] In a Continuing Indictment of Obamanomics, another Bad Jobs Number Showing the “New Normal” of H… […]
Z wrote: “Once their competitiveness is no longer tops in the world, the game is over.”
I agree with you that we have moved past the point of no return. I believe there are many competitive people within our economy, but I see more and more of the “hate to work hard but expect more money” crowd. Factor in the lack of quality being generated by the average college degree today and you have a receipt for serfdom.
Many, especially young people, are full of confidence but lack any work ethic or job skills. When they fail, it’s never their fault but they blame everybody else, like those evil 1 percenters! It’s why class warfare works so well for Obama. People are too ignorant to understand that it doesn’t work and too arrogant to blame themselves for their failures and mistakes.
.
Indeed Europe is the new norm. The norm of decline. A decline which may appear slow on a day to day basis, but is truly precipitous on a historical and generational time scale — moving along at a two to four percent annual growth deficit, relentlessly compounding American standard of living towards the world average.
A continent like Europe — and now America — that has a growth deficit of three percentage points relative to world average growth is simply, perpetually and relentlessly losing half of its prosperity standing in the world every generation. That is the elementary arithmetic of (1-0.03)^25y. By the time they grow up, your children will have lost half of their world prosperity standing in he world. Your grandchildren will be down to a quarter. That is the ultimate cruel outcome of mandatory compassion. And that is the optimistic timeline. Positive feedback effects will cause voter-lemmings to act ever more suicidal the more economically stressed they become. Case in point, stressed by the consequences of Bush statism, Americans elect Obama. Two to two and a half percent may be the new growth trendline, but the sombering effects of this lower growth are poised to induce voter-lemmings into more suicide.
American average productivity under the new redistributive incentives and greater collective management of economic activity can no longer justify or support a standard of living that is six times larger than the world average. Perhaps a five or four multiple is more in equilibrium. But rather than take the hit, restabilize and then remove the disincentives to exceptional production, The American People are delusionaly trying to claw back the six times multiple through redistribution – thus compounding the problem and entering into the inescapable vicious cycle of decline.
—————————–
American liberals make the fatal mistake that Obama makes (or the reality he conveniently chooses to ignore as he understandably strives to continue his stunt as most powerful person in the world in a voter-lemming world):
They believe that American productivity is a cultural phenomenon. That is dead wrong.
While policy and culture do evolve in tandem, under the same welfare incentives that Europeans live under, Americans will act in the exact same way. Under welfare state incentives, American culture will also change and drive towards exceptionalism will also Europeanize. Whether consciously or subconsciously, Americans will engage the new relative value of non-pecuniary indolence to work. Once their competitiveness is no longer tops in the world, the game is over. A vicious cycle of economic distress, desperation and more economically suicidal policies will ensue. That point, in my view, has already passed, and what you see is the mediocre momentum of an ever accelerating decline. The reason Americans are not scared is that they do not realize how long they have to fall.
——————————————-
But I could be wrong… and that would be wonderful. Americans will apparently keep working for me, I can vote for all the safety nets and social programs I want, America remains the most prosperous nation in the world and young Americans in HopNChange T-Shirts keep working for me. Indolence (or near indolence) while living in the wealthiest country on earth. A win-win situation!
So while the HopNChangers enthusiastically embrace work, I’ll keep my skills international, my capital mobile, and my bags packed while I enjoy the HopNChange provided by a shrinking pool of others – while it lasts. Once I have pigged out eating with the other HopNChangers the seed for next years crop, it will be time to go.
[…] « In a Continuing Indictment of Obamanomics, another Bad Jobs Number Showing the “New NormalR… […]
Someday they’ll come to their senses and realize that people productive people are not the enemy… right? Maybe not
“What Difference does it make”. Still got 92.1% working, paying taxes and spending a bit of the leftover income so stop complaining.
See how easy it is to be a Democrat.
You should include an adjustment for labor participation in these charts, it would show a more accurate comparison.
Does anyone read beyond the headline? From this month’s report:
12/12 1/13
Employed 143,305,000 143,322,000 +17,000
Not in labor force 88,839,000 89,008,000 +169,000
Unemployed 12,206,000 12,332,000 +126,000
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.a.htm
How this translates to 157,000 new jobs, I don’t know.
[…] HOW’S THAT HOPEY-CHANGEY STUFF WORKIN’ OUT FOR YA? (CONT’D): In a Continuing Indictment of Obamanomics, Another Bad Jobs Number Showing the “New Normal” of H… […]
Reblogged this on This Got My Attention and commented:
It’s way to generous to call Obama’s economic predictions “optimistic.” They are in fact delusional.