As shown in the video series on the economics of government spending, I’m not a big fan of the welfare state, which is big government in the long run.
I’m also not a fan of bigger government in the short run, which is what we get from Keynesian economics and so-called stimulus.
But truth doesn’t matter in Washington if voters don’t agree with your position. Actually, truth may not matter even if voters are on your side. But there’s at least a chance to prevail against the prevailing culture of statism when voters support your position.
So let’s enjoy these details about some encouraging new polling data.
Three quarters (74%) of voters do not believe federal government spending has helped the economy, and 86% do not believe government spending has helped their own personal financial situation.
This pessimism over the impact of government spending is consistent throughout many key demographic groups that are frequently mentioned as “target” voters in the upcoming Presidential election. Nearly three quarters of both men (75%) and women (72%) do not believe government spending has helped the economy, along with eight in ten (80%) seniors. A majority (54%) of seniors say spending has “hurt” the economy. Also, a majority of Independents (55%) and married women (59%) believe government spending has hurt the economy. Three quarters (76%) of middle class families do not believe spending has helped the economy, with 58% believing government spending has actually hurt the economy.
For those who want to take comfort in some additional good public opinion data, here are some additional numbers from previous polls.
- More than two-to-one support for personal retirement accounts.
- Recognition that big government is the greatest danger to America’s future.
- An increasingly negative view of the federal government.
- More than eight-to-one support for less spending rather than higher taxes.
- Strong support for bureaucrat layoffs and/or entitlement reforms instead of higher taxes.
- Three-fourths of voters think the top tax rate should be no higher than 30 percent.
- And my favorite poll results are the ones showing that voters understand that the goal is less spending, not lower deficits.
These good numbers are why I think it’s actually possible to implement entitlement reform. People see what’s happening in Europe and don’t want America to suffer a similar fate.
Nor should they believe Krugman, given his stances…such as the one where he said the success of the iPhone offered clear evidence of the value of government spending:
http://libertymcg.com/2012/09/20/krugman-the-iphone-why-the-times-econ-icon-should-be-deleted-from-discourse/
Found this cartoon on democratic entitlements funny http://www.theonion.com/articles/democratic-entitlements,29506/
And yet the smart money has to bet on Obama winning the election.
Possible reasons:
(1) The polling is wrong,
(2) People don’t vote their brains,
(3) Voters perceive Romney as so bad that any disaster is better, or
(4) Voters don’t understand Obama’s policies.
Two of those four conclusions suggest that our voters are not very smart.
Why do you keep picking on poor little Paul?
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They don’t believe him. They just vote for him.
You’re reading into the study what you want to see.
While voters don’t believe this last round of government spending helped the economy, it doesn’t mean that voters believe that government spending never helps.
74% percent of laymen might not believe that the stimulus helped, but 90% of economists do. Just ask Bush and Romney advisor, Greg Mankiw.
“4. Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)”
http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/02/news-flash-economists-agree.html
[…] comports with data from previous polls, including the recent survey showing nearly three-fourths of Americans don’t think Obama’s spending helped the economy, the 2011 poll showing Americans […]
[…] recent months, for instance, I’ve gleefully noted that voters disagree with Paul Krugman on the economic impact of government […]